CPI may show signs of decline
The market expects that the decline in gasoline prices will reduce the month-on-month growth rate of the overall CPI in May to the lowest since the end of last year, and is expected to record 0.1%, lower than 0.3% in April, and the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI will remain at 3.4%.
The core CPI is expected to remain resilient, with the month-on-month growth rate consistent with 0.3% in April, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to decline from 3.6% to 3.5%, reaching the lowest level since April 2021. This is still a long way from the 2% inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.
Although the CPI is released only a few hours before the FOMC meeting, policymakers are likely to have a clear idea of inflation. Judging from the recent inflation sub-items, the stickiness of the core services and housing sub-items is still the key to affecting inflation.
As of now, the CPI forecasts of various foreign banks are as follows:
Bank of America: Inflation is expected to continue the slowdown in April, and the core and overall CPI will rise by 0.3% and 0.1% month-on-month, respectively, making the year-on-year growth rates 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively.
BNP Paribas: The monthly rate of the US core CPI is expected to be 0.3% in May, further indicating that inflation is falling from the high level in the first quarter; housing inflation is expected to decline, driving the overall CPI down.
Goldman Sachs: In view of the decline in air ticket prices, weak consumer prices, falling auto insurance rates, lower new car prices, and stable housing inflation, the monthly rate of the core CPI is expected to fall to 0.25%.
Morgan Stanley: The decline in energy prices in May may slow the month-on-month growth rate of the overall CPI to 0.146%; in addition, the weakness of service industry inflation also contributed to the slowdown of CPI.
Royal Bank of Canada: The year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI is expected to remain at 3.4% in May, and the core CPI growth is expected to fall from 3.6% in April to 3.5%, slowing down to 0.2% month-on-month. #比特币走势分析 #数字货币超话 #区块链超话 #以太坊ETF通过 #合约爆仓
