CPI + Fed, will the market bleed this week?

This Wednesday is very exciting

Wall Street is already holding money and waiting.

This Wednesday, the day when the Fed’s interest rate decision is announced, coincides with the release of CPI inflation.

How will the Fed decide without the May inflation data?

Will the CPI inflation trend be completely opposite to the expectations of the Fed’s decision statement? Tomorrow will be very turbulent.

After careful analysis by the JPMorgan Chase trading desk, the market currently predicts that the S&P 500 index will fluctuate by 1.3% to 1.4% before this Friday. The bank specifically pointed out in its report that with the announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Fed’s interest rate decision, the market may see a potential contrast between Powell’s press conference and the CPI results.

JPMorgan Chase further analyzed that if the core CPI month-on-month increase in the month exceeds 0.4%, risk assets may be sold off, and the S&P 500 index may face a decline of 1.5% to 2.5%, but the probability of this happening is only 5%. If the increase is between 0.3% and 0.35%, the volatility of the S&P 500 index will be controlled within 0.75%, and changes in housing costs, automobiles and medical prices will be the decisive factors. If the core CPI month-on-month increase drops to 0.2% to 0.25%, the market may predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, and some traders even predict that there may be a rate cut in July, mainly based on the consideration that the European Central Bank has taken the lead in cutting interest rates.

If the core CPI month-on-month increase falls below 0.2%, it will be regarded as extremely good news, which may push the S&P 500 index to soar by 1.75% to 2.5%. At present, the market generally expects the US core CPI to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in May.

Have you already sold your position?

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