#美联储利率决策即将公布 $BTC

What happened when the market fell so sharply in broad daylight?

What else could it be? Since the US cannot raise interest rates, there are only two possibilities.

Script 1: Continue to maintain a high interest rate level and do not waver. Hold on until the end of the year.

Script 2: Cut interest rates

Let's talk about Script 2 first: When will the interest rate be cut and how many times?

Currently, experts estimate that the rate will be cut 1-2 times. At most 50 basis points. If you are pessimistic, there will be 25 basis points. I estimate it will be September or December. June is impossible. Now everyone is betting on July and August.

If you are the dealer and get this script, how would you arrange it?

Let's talk about Script 1: Why is it complicated?

First of all, the US officials have not been swearing recently. When a bad guy is polite to you, he is either weak or trying to trick you.

At present, I can't see where the weakness is. And this year is also an election year, so reversals are the norm.

The Americans are playing with their cards openly, and many people don't understand and dare not believe it.

At present, the probability of scenario 1 is relatively high, but other possibilities cannot be ruled out.

Finally, why are you bullish?

It's too easy to fall like this. Can our dealers who are good at making money make the shorts so easily, and not kill both the longs and shorts?

I don't believe it. I'm waiting for a callback.