[Ether to Bitcoin exchange rate and the cottage season]
Figure 1 is the weekly chart, and Figure 2 is the 4-hour chart. Focus on Figure 2
The green line in the figure is the long-term supply line of the exchange rate since mid-2022
The day before yesterday, on the 24th, the results of the Ethereum ETF came out, and the exchange rate also rebounded to the pressure of the supply line. We can clearly see from the figure that many people are worried that the exchange rate will still not break through this time, so they exchanged Ethereum for Bitcoin at the pressure level, causing the exchange rate to fall again after briefly breaking through the green line.
However, if we want to push the exchange rate back to the downward trend, we need to see the continuity of supply, that is, more people are exchanging Ethereum for Bitcoin here, but from the market, such a phenomenon has not appeared at present.
So here, the adjustment of the exchange rate after the false breakthrough may just be accumulating momentum, and there will be a real breakthrough after the subsequent accumulation of momentum.
——I am 60% sure about this judgment.
If the exchange rate successfully breaks through the supply line, it means that the cottage leader Ethereum will officially turn from weak to strong, and the years of Ethereum being suppressed by Bitcoin for more than two years will end again. What can be expected is a wave of considerable cottage market.
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Figure 3 is my view and popular science on exchange rate two months ago.
At that time, it was proposed that the cost-effectiveness of buying Ethereum in the later stage is higher than that of buying Bitcoin.
In April, we have been operating according to this idea, buying Ethereum with a large position and Bitcoin with a small position.
Fortunately, the judgment was correct, and the profit of this wave of operations was quite considerable.
