The biggest hot topic recently is the ETH ETF. Some news from the SEC has greatly increased the market's probability of passing the ETF, triggering a surge in ETH. Most people couldn't keep up with the previous pace. So, the key is how ETH will go next?
If the ETF is not approved in the end, then it goes without saying that ETH will definitely plummet. If ETH's ETF is approved as expected, then we can refer to BTC for the subsequent trend. After BTC's ETF was approved, the market adjusted 20% due to the positive landing, and then started a wave of main upswings. The reason for the main upswing was the buying of US stock funds.
However, the difference is that before BTC was approved, the market had a unanimous agreement, and the increase before approval was relatively large, so there was a favorable adjustment. ETH was not so consistent in the market before, and it did not cause a big rise. In addition, BTC has a historical experience of subsequent rise. If the ETF is not approved this time, everyone can wait patiently for the market to fall back. In the worst case, it will fall below 3,000, and everyone can start buying when the opportunity arises;
If you follow the script of pass → pullback → rise, then you can start entering the market at the position below 3500-3200!
Currently, the entire network is filled with optimistic FOMO sentiment, and many people have even discussed which sectors will benefit after the Ethereum ETF is passed. In fact, many people really need to calm down and learn more about the details of this Ethereum ETF.
First, a well-known American financial lawyer said that according to the current ETF application documents of institutions, Ethereum’s ETF is still listed according to the “commodity trust shares” rules. What does this mean?
This means that once the SEC approves the Ethereum ETF, it will have to admit that Ethereum is not a security. The chief legal officer of Variant Fund tweeted that once the Ethereum ETF is approved, the SEC will have to admit that non-pledged ETH is not a security. Please note that the original text mentioned non-pledged, which means that ETFs involving pledge or Defi attributes will still not be recognized. Does this mean that it will be split? Or converted?
Grayscale has begun to delete the clause about ETHE conversion to ETH in the application documents, which means that Grayscale has temporarily given up on ETH as an ETF involving pledged properties. At the same time, James Seyffart emphasized that institutions still need to prepare for several days, weeks or even months from the approval to the issuance of Ethereum’s ETH, because the Ethereum ETF is not as well prepared as the previous Bitcoin ETF was when it was approved. Many institutions are still unprepared for the sudden change in the SEC’s attitude.
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