There is a very small possibility that Bitcoin has peaked this cycle at the $73,000 mark, according to the “exponential decay” model put forth by veteran trader Peter Brandt.
Of course, many other price models and prediction tools suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) is still far from reaching its cycle top and could instead peak at $210,000 before the end of the bull run.
On April 27, veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt posted a theory suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has exhibited an “exponential decline” pattern.
This occurs when each successive cycle has a peak price that is only about 20% of the previous cycle's peak increase. Data shows this has happened in the last three Bitcoin market cycles.
“In other words, 80% of the exponential energy of every successful bull market cycle has been lost,” Brandt said.
Bitcoin cycle decays exponentially | Source: Peter Brandt
Based on this rate of price decline, Brandt estimates the current cycle will only see a 4.5x increase from a low of around $15,500. The cycle top is therefore predicted to be around $70,000 – a level it reached in March when prices peaked at $73,000.
However, Brandt is not completely convinced by this theory and gives a 25% probability that BTC has peaked this cycle.
Other analysts reject this theory
On April 29, Quantonomy CEO and chief research officer Giovanni Santostasi refuted the exponential decay theory with a theory of his own based on long-term power-law behavior.
Commenting on Brandt's theory, he said: “We only have 3 data points if we exclude the pre-halving period and actually only 2 data points if we look at the ratios, which is hardly enough data to make any important statistics”.
Santostasi measured the percentage deviation of price peaks from the long-term power-law trend, extrapolating a different exponential decay model.
A power law is a functional relationship in which one quantity changes as a power of another quantity, in this case the price of BTC over time.
Using figures extrapolated from the Genesis block, this price model predicts a fourth cycle peak around December 2025 of around $210,000. The predicted bottom for the next cycle is around $83,000, based on historical observations, he said.
The analysis combines power-law trends, four-year halving cycles, exponentially decreasing peaks, and other factors into an integrated model to predict Bitcoin price.
Many others have made predictions about Bitcoin topping this cycle. Swyftx chief analyst Pav Hundal says that Bitcoin will at least double by the next halving in 2028, estimating a price around $120,000.
Source: Giovanni Santostasi
Meanwhile, Acheron Trading CEO and quantitative trading strategy expert Laurent Benayoun predicts a potential cycle top of $180,000.
Fidelity Digital Assets revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin on April 22, stating that it is “no longer cheap.”
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $62,300, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March.
Source: https://tapchibitcoin.io/cac-nha-phan-tich-tranh-cai-ve-mo-hinh-gia-bitcoin-se-dat-dinh-70k-hay-210k.html