Bitcoin is now at 63000-62500. In case of a spill below, further support is at 59000-60000
All this is within the large range of 59000-73777, where Bitcoin has been for almost 2 months.
Last week, BlackRock stopped buying Bitcoin for the first time. 2 days without purchases). If even small sales begin, this will be a factor in the decline.
Especially in combination with the fact that DTCC (the company that clears trades on NASDAQ) will prohibit the use of BTC-ETFs and any other crypto instruments as collateral for financial transactions. If desired, you can inflate FUD around these two facts, sufficient to move into the stop zone below 58K.
Other factors of a possible fall are the SEC going crazy again (attempts to attack either MetaMask or Ether), the yield of US debt bonds at extreme levels, the dollar index, which is growing again (closed above 106), and the threat of a fall in the stock market, which is still is still far from finished.
But there is also good news.
Despite all of the above, Bitcoin does not even fall below 62K. Even in a thin weekend market. Resistance to negativity is the first sign of good prospects in the near future.
A spot ETH-ETF has appeared on the DTCC website (the same one that banned the use of BTC-ETF for collateral). They may know more about the ETH-ETF approval in May than we do.
BTC-ETF trading begins in Hong Kong on April 30. Whether this will be a factor in growth or decline depends on trading volumes in the early days and the ability to access the instrument from mainland China.
More good news - a bank in the US went bankrupt for the first time this year (Republic First Bank).
The positive is that the bankruptcy of the bank is a sign that the debt crisis (the inevitability of which was spoken about back in 2022) has already reached the stage that requires an immediate response from the Fed. That is, a rate reduction.
This also includes the rapid increase in the cost of servicing the national debt, which in a year could reach $1.7 trillion.
This means that the Fed rate cut will be much faster than market participants currently think. Which, in turn, is a big positive for the crypt.
Next week I expect Bitcoin to attempt to exit the two-month range. That is, we will check for strength or support at 60000-59000, or resistance above 72K.
The stop zone at the top is much more attractive, the stop zone at the bottom is more achievable. It makes no difference where we go, since in any short-term scenario the long-term scenario is obvious.
Will Bitcoin be at 50K - it's 50:50
Will it be at 80K - will it be. Probability 99.9%. It's just a matter of time.
How to act in such a situation is obvious.
