With each round of Bitcoin’s rise and fall, the lowest point will be higher.
The reason behind this is that after each round of bull and bear markets, a group of people will realize its irreplaceability. One by one, individuals become the cornerstone of value anchoring. This cornerstone will become higher and higher, gradually increasing at an exponential level.
The reason for its exponential growth is that once each individual becomes an anchor center, it will become a new transmission node in the next bull or bear market.
Word of mouth spreads from one person to ten, and from ten to a hundred, and it becomes exponential growth.
When is it not exponential growth? When: Bitcoin's ability to spread declines: price drops, countries block it, the economy improves without financial and currency crises, Bitcoin itself has serious problems, etc. When the spreaders form antibodies: believers in traditional economics, beneficiaries of the current inflationary system and monetary system, users who cannot accept the concept of Bitcoin, etc. When the target audiences of the spreaders overlap a lot: Bitcoin finally matures and enters the end of the S-shaped growth curve.
In ten years, there will be 2 to 3 bull-bear transitions, and each time the lowest point will increase by 5 to 10 times (calculated at 7 times). The current lowest price of the bull and bear markets is 3,000 US dollars. Optimistic estimates predict that the lowest price of the bear market in ten years will be 1.05 million US dollars.
In fact, it is not that high. If we only count two bull and bear markets, and each time the return is 5 times, it is about 130,000 US dollars. This should be a conservative estimate.
It should be noted that this current valuation method is purely based on historical data. In fact, there are many other variables that are not taken into account. For example, the upper limit of global mining electricity costs, the market value ratio of altcoins, the emergence of quantum computers, etc. Additional considerations are needed.
