Earlier we talked about the topic of#BTCprice changes in the three main trading time zones of the United States, Europe and Asia, and also talked about the weakness of price increases during the main trading hours in the United States. The focus here is still the issue of liquidity. We have been emphasizing before that the positive impact this time is more on the emotional side. Although it has led to price increases, it is all because of the optimistic sentiment towards BTC ETFs (trusts), which has not changed the liquidity dilemma.
From the perspective of liquidity, the focus is still on two indicators. The first is the change in the market value of the main stablecoins, and the second is the change in daily purchasing power. Although the focus should be on USDT and USDC in terms of market value, BUSD and TUSD cannot be ignored. From the data point of view, the market value of USDT has increased by 21 million US dollars in the past 24 hours, and by 60 million US dollars in the past week. This data is still relatively low.
Similarly, within 24 hours, the market value of USDC decreased by 120 million US dollars, and in the past week, the market value of USDC decreased by 200 million US dollars. Maybe you don’t have a direct impression of this, but if you push the time back a little, BlackRock applied for BTC trust on June 15, and within a week from that day, the market value of USDC increased by 370 million US dollars. Even if the market value has declined now, it is still nearly 170 million US dollars more than before the application.
To put it simply, the BTC trust applied for by BlackRock has indeed stimulated the sentiment of the currency market, especially as more American investors have begun to enter the market. Even after BlackRock just applied, six or seven funds followed suit and applied for similar trusts, which all supported the strengthening of the market. In this case, although it boosted the market sentiment, it did not fundamentally change the liquidity. This scale of funds is still not enough to drive a substantial rise in the market again.
To be more clear, applying for BTC trust or ETF is indeed a positive, but this positive need the final approval of SEC to be converted into liquidity. Let’s not talk about whether SEC’s approval will be passed, the pre-examination time is nearly two months without extension. If SEC thinks that this event needs more time to discuss, it can be extended once, which is almost two months. Therefore, unless there is a new positive to continue to stimulate user sentiment, according to the current fund trend, user sentiment has begun to cool down.
Although this does not mean that#BTCand#ETHwill not rise, it is difficult for the rise to be as sharp as the rise from $26,000 to $30,000, unless there are new or updated positive factors that stimulate market sentiment again, or trigger the return of liquidity.
I am neither bearish nor pessimistic. I am simply explaining the results brought by the current data. Whether it is long or short has nothing to do with me and is not subject to my will. I don't have any contracts, so it has nothing to do with me whether the market goes up or down.
In addition, the market capitalization of BUSD and TUSD mentioned above has dropped by 56 million USD and increased by 400,000 USD respectively in the past week. The main flow time of these two stablecoins is during the main trading hours in the United States, and they can be regarded as stablecoins dominated by American investors. So far, the market capitalization of the four main stablecoins has continued to decline, whether in the past 24 hours or in the past week.
After talking about the data of stablecoin market value, we need to look at the purchasing power data, especially the data of USDT and USDC transferred to the exchange. Although it cannot be completely determined that this is the purchasing power, it can still be used as a reference for purchasing power.
First of all, let’s take USDT. It can be clearly seen that on June 16, the highest purchasing power change occurred in the past six months. Although some of this part of the funds was due to the temporary decoupling of USDT, it can still be seen that a week after the decoupling, the amount of funds can still be maintained at a relatively high average level in the past six months (the red part). However, after the end of last week, it can be seen that the amount of funds transferred to the exchange has obviously declined and returned to a lower level in the past six months.
This represents the same as the stablecoin market value data seen earlier, indicating that market sentiment is beginning to cool down, and more funds have shifted from buying to waiting. Unless there is a new positive stimulus, it may be relatively difficult to see a substantial increase. And this is just USDT, and USDT is not the main purchasing power for this increase.
There is no need to say more about the data. When BlackRock first applied for BTC trust on June 15, USDC showed strong purchasing power. In the following week, it also saw a brief burst like USDT (red part). After a weekend, the purchasing power of USDC transferred to the exchange also dropped significantly.
So we can draw the same conclusion that the market still needs new positive stimuli to continue to move upward, otherwise the extent of the increase will be limited.