Why has the United States been slow to cut interest rates?
The United States is currently in a dilemma, and there are many difficulties in cutting interest rates or not.
If you choose to cut interest rates:
Capital may flow to Europe and China, causing the United States to pay for the Russian-Ukrainian war but fail to get the expected economic returns, and may even indirectly help the recovery of the European economy. Inflation may rise rapidly and the value of the US dollar will fall, which will undoubtedly increase economic pressure in the United States. If the US dollar depreciates and China insists on keeping the RMB exchange rate stable, then Chinese goods may further flood into the US market, affecting the US trade balance and manufacturing recovery. The depreciation of the US dollar may indirectly enhance the relative strength of the Chinese economy and thus enhance its position in the global economy. Although low interest rates bring opportunities for economically troubled countries such as Egypt, Argentina and Brazil to relieve pressure, this is not in line with the strategic interests of the United States.
If you do not choose to cut interest rates:
The United States is already facing huge pressure on US debt interest rates, which is also an important reason why Yellen went to China to sell US debt, hoping to reduce the burden of US debt before cutting interest rates and achieve a soft landing of the economy. High interest rates may further aggravate the hollowing out of the US manufacturing industry, leading to rising unemployment and causing greater impact on the domestic economy. The United States' major allies, such as the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea, are also under economic pressure from the strong dollar, which poses a challenge to the United States' international status and influence. The U.S. debt problem remains severe. The interest rate hike has caused the U.S. government to pay huge interest. The printing press alone can no longer solve this problem. The risk of a U.S. debt crisis is accumulating. Once the U.S. debt crisis breaks out, the petrodollar system will also face the crisis of collapse.
Therefore, the United States is indeed facing a dilemma on the issue of interest rate cuts. It needs to comprehensively consider the economic situation and policy impact at home and abroad to make the most sensible decision.
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