Original author: OKLink
Original source: OKEx
BTC has experienced three halvings so far and will usher in its fourth halving in seven days.
In order to meet this critical moment, the OKLink browser, which focuses on building data infrastructure, has already prepared a rich and detailed "halving" topic for Web3 enthusiasts who are concerned about data analysis.
https://www.oklink.com/zh-hans/btc-halving
Currently, OKLink has launched 44 mainstream blockchain browsers, parsed more than 200 chains, and fully integrated user needs to launch special pages such as Dencun Cancun Upgrade and Inscription Browser, which greatly saves users' time in searching and collecting data. It allows all users to enjoy the breadth and depth of data while gaining more power and obtaining the required data more conveniently and quickly.
Regarding the BTC halving, the media outlet Honeycomb Finance, which is known as the "Blockchain Truth Faction", raised a question: Is it still effective to use data to "carve a boat to find a sword"? At the same time, it said: The market is changing, and the "rules" seem to be ineffective, but the data on the Bitcoin chain still foreshadows the future, not only about the price, but also about where the Bitcoin ecosystem will go after the reward is halved.
The following opinions are excerpted from: Bitcoin "halving" is less than 20 days away. Will it still work to use data to "look for the sword on the boat"?
Observation 1: âTriple peaksâ appeared during the third halving cycle
The historical price trend data mined by OKLink's "Bitcoin Halving Special Page" shows that from January 2009 to November 2012, the highest price of BTC was only about US$23. During this period, the initial block reward of Bitcoin was 50 BTC.
Bitcoin holdersâ exploration of âhalvingâ and price patterns began on November 28, 2012, when the Bitcoin network implemented the block reward halving rule for the first time, and the output per block dropped to 25 BTC. One year later, on December 1, 2013, the price of BTC reached a new high of $1,127, 47.25 times the previous high.
The perception that âa new high will be reached the year after the halvingâ was deepened the year after the second halving on July 9, 2016.
On May 11, 2020, the third halving ended. When people thought that BTC would reach $67,145 on November 10, 2021, the following year, and once again "verify the law", something no one expected happened - on March 14, 2024, BTC hit a new high of $73,737. At this time, the Bitcoin network was more than a month away from halving.
Observation 2: As incentives decrease, what will support future value?
The huge number of holders and traders are the largest group of users in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The OKLink Bitcoin browser shows that as of 17:30 on April 12, the number of BTC holding addresses reached 54,047,862, of which the number of active addresses was 726,995, and the 24-hour on-chain transaction volume reached 693.00K BTC.
In addition to holders and traders, miners who maintain the operation of the Bitcoin network are also an important part of the ecological population. If the Bitcoin halving is good for market traders, it is not so good for miners, because the halving of block production means that the rewards they receive from each block will be reduced.
Under this reality, miners need to recalculate the input-output ratio of "mining" or maintaining the network, that is, whether the income from mining BTC can cover or even exceed the input cost (mining machine computing power, electricity, maintenance, etc.).
For Bitcoin miners, income mainly comes from block rewards, followed by transaction fees generated by on-chain transactions. The miner income data on OKLink's "Bitcoin Halving Special Page" clearly shows the miners' income structure.
Observation three: The early development of the new ecological application âInscriptionâ
This type of token issued on the Bitcoin network based on the Ordinals protocol, including homogeneous BRC-20 tokens and non-homogeneous Ordinals NFTs, was first created in March 2023 and became popular among the "inscription" user group in May. The inscription protocols on the Bitcoin network have also gradually become richer, and the Atomicals and Stamp protocols have their own supporters in the user group.
OKLink Bitcoin Browser collects inscription protocol data from the entire network
The OKLink browser collects all the inscription protocol data on the entire network. The tool shows that as of April 12, there were 87,653 BRC-20 format inscription tokens on the Bitcoin network, and 3,313 Ordinals NFTs; the total number of SRC-20 inscription tokens was second, at 1,013; and there were 384 ARC-20 inscription tokens.
A large number of inscription tokens were created in the Bitcoin network, which also facilitated large-scale on-chain transactions, and brought miners a fee income that was almost equivalent to the mining reward. With the increase of protocols like Ordinals, users of inscription applications not only contributed to the Bitcoin on-chain transaction fees, but also enriched the types of Bitcoin transactions.
As the market expands, it is not reliable to follow the history of "Bitcoin halving" to get the exact price, but making good use of Web3 data tools such as OKLink will help value followers discover the progress of Bitcoin adoption. In the data such as the number of coin holding addresses, on-chain transaction volume, number of network nodes, on-chain transaction types, etc. that change over time, the history of Bitcoin is buried, recording the present and also hiding the future.
