BTC market trend analysis: Breaking a new high next week! There's drama!

1. Today is particularly worthy of attention because the daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly closing lines overlap. Although there are many voices on the Internet predicting a sharp correction next week, falling to the 60,000 or even 50,000 range, our view remains unchanged: as long as it does not fall below 68,000, it is expected to hit a new high next week.

2. For this wave of small new highs, I still tend to maintain the previous forecast, which is the range of 75,000 to 79,000. We need to prepare corresponding plans: if it breaks through a new high and rushes towards the 80,000 range, we do not rule out that there will be a pin between 5,000 and 8,000 points. For spot prices, you don’t need to worry too much about this situation, but for contracts, you need to be cautious. At the same time, this will also be a good opportunity for spot bargain hunting.

3. I will continue to use the main picture, which is consistent with our predictions, and move within the box. You can refer to the previous article (check the changes). Once it breaks a new high, we will update a box chart and plan chart for your reference.

*The following data were collected at the time of writing and may be biased due to time changes.

1. Market dynamics and capital changes:

The current total market value is approximately US$2.76 trillion, which has not changed much compared to yesterday’s market;

The market value of Bitcoin is approximately US$1.38 trillion, with no significant change compared to yesterday;

The market value of Ethereum is approximately US$424.2 billion, a decrease of approximately US$2.7 billion compared to yesterday;

The market value of altcoins (including Ethereum) is approximately US$1.38 trillion, with no significant change compared to yesterday;

The current total BTC stock of all exchanges remains at the lowest level in the past six years. Currently, there are only 1.773 million BTC in exchange addresses across the entire network. Others are in cold wallets, and the index of the main buyers who buy in the 50,000-60,000 range and deposit them in cold wallets reaches 21°

There is no significant change in market value compared to yesterday. Bitcoin accounts for about 50% of the market, and Ethereum accounts for about 15%, which is not much different from yesterday’s data.

2. Transaction volume:

The total transaction volume was approximately US$75.3 billion, a decrease of approximately 20% compared to yesterday;

Bitcoin transaction volume was approximately US$17.3 billion, a decrease of approximately US$4.7 billion compared with yesterday, a decrease of 21%;

The transaction volume of Ethereum is approximately US$10.2 billion, a decrease of approximately US$2.8 billion compared with yesterday, a decrease of 22%;

The transaction volume of altcoins (including Ethereum) is approximately US$58 billion, a decrease of approximately US$15 billion compared with yesterday, a decrease of 20%;

It is reasonable for liquidity to deteriorate over the weekend, with transaction volume declining to a certain extent compared to yesterday; according to Ni Da’s data analysis, BTC with a warehouse cost of less than $60,000 continues to account for 15% of the total turnover rate on the day. Less than 70,000 yuan, which shows that the current price of 70,000 yuan cannot satisfy them, and the bottom-building structure is still good.

3. Funding

The total funds on the market are approximately US$151.2 billion, a decrease of approximately US$200 million compared to yesterday;

USDT: The market value is approximately US$104.5 billion, with no significant change compared to yesterday’s market value; the trading volume is approximately US$38 billion, a decrease of approximately US$10.1 billion compared with yesterday, a decrease of 21%;

USDC: Market value is approximately US$32.5 billion, with no significant change compared to yesterday’s market value; trading volume is approximately US$5.17 billion, a decrease of approximately US$2 billion compared with yesterday, a decrease of 28%;

The market is sideways and the market is closed on the weekend. It can be seen that the funds on the market have decreased to a certain extent compared with yesterday;

4. Contract data

The total contract holdings on the entire network are approximately US$77.8 billion, a decrease of 0.8% compared to yesterday;

The 24H contract trading volume of the entire network was approximately US$104.2 billion, a decrease of approximately 27% compared to yesterday;

The total 24H liquidation volume on the entire network was approximately US$98.63 million, a decrease of approximately 31.5% compared to yesterday;

Among them, Bitcoin contract holdings are approximately US$37.4 billion, a decrease of 0.56% compared to yesterday.

Bitcoin contract trading volume was approximately US$34.4 billion, a decrease of approximately 35.9% compared to yesterday.

The liquidation volume of Bitcoin in 24H was approximately US$8.57 million, the liquidation volume of long orders was approximately US$4.69 million, and the liquidation volume of short orders was approximately US$3.89 million;

Judging from the contract data, there are also decreases to varying degrees compared with yesterday;

5. ETF data

The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETF is approximately US$4.254 billion, the total market value of Bitcoin ETF is approximately US$62.092 billion, and the total asset management scale of Bitcoin ETF is approximately US$58.341 billion. The market is closed these days and no statistics will be collected.

Hold on to the chips in your hands, be patient, and wait for new highs.