Let’s talk about non-farm data today.
What is non-agricultural? It mainly reflects the economic trend of the United States. It is an important indicator for the United States to formulate monetary policy. It also plays a basic early warning role. Through such data, we can also understand the development of the US economy, which is also helpful for investors to judge the market in the future.
The first Friday of each month is called the big non-farm payrolls, and the subsequent Fridays are called small non-farm payrolls.
Why is the first non-farm data more important?
Because the next data after non-farm payrolls is CPI, and then interest rate hikes will begin.
Therefore, the relationship between non-farm payrolls, CPI and interest rate hikes is very close.
Several important indicators for interest rate hikes include non-agricultural and CPI
So what is the relationship between non-farm payrolls and interest rate hikes? Let's take a look at the interest rate hike data from January 2023 to now.
The following picture shows the price reaction of BTC from the non-agricultural data on January 6, 2023 to June
We analyze the two pictures together and draw the following conclusions:
The non-agricultural data is reflected in the K-line very laggingly. Let's analyze the situation after the previous non-agricultural data on the same day.
Non-farm payrolls on 1.06 slightly lower than the previous value, up 8 days the next day
Non-farm payrolls on February 3rd is much higher than the previous value, down for 10 days
Non-farm payrolls on March 10th was much lower than the previous value and rose the next day for 12 days
Non-farm payrolls on April 7th was much lower than the previous value and rose for 7 consecutive days the next day
The non-farm payrolls on May 5th was much higher than the previous value, and the next day it fell for 7 consecutive days
6.02 non-farm payrolls slightly higher than the previous value, so? ? ? ?
According to this data, the market will start to fall again the next day.
Where will it fall? Our 24800 should be the brake point for this wave of decline!
I do not make any investment advice, this is just a personal daily record!
If you disagree with the views in this article, your own opinion shall prevail.
