When will the bull market come? Which altcoins do you need to deploy in advance to make a profit?

Bitcoin's daily line fell again to a new low, the three lines of KDJ diverged rapidly downward, and the daily pressure moved down to around 28400-28500. The three lines of the daily Bollinger gradually closed. Although the price fell, it still remained in the Bollinger shock market as a whole, and there were signs of continued decline in the daily line to find support. The short-term four-hour K-line 27200 formed support, and the short-selling force was gradually weakening. The KDJ bottom golden cross rose, and the MACD fast and slow lines were blunted at the bottom and showed signs of turning, and the K-line and the volume formed a bottom divergence. The overall four-hour view was stable and bullish. The K-line in the hour was in the boll falling channel, and the MACD bullish force gradually closed. 27600-27300 is the subsequent shock range. Based on the above, it is recommended to do more in the follow-up callback during the day.

ETH

The three boll lines on the Ethereum daily line are closed, and there may be a relatively large market in the next few days. The daily support of 1800 is likely to be ineffective. There will be a false breakthrough and then a callback shock during the day. The short-term four-hour K-line also shows signs of bottom divergence as a whole and the short energy is closed for the second time. Be careful of the subsequent pin-in to stop the decline, and continue to rise after getting rid of the long order burden. Therefore, it is recommended to do more in the callback of Ethereum during the day.

Shanzhai layout ideas

According to the trend of the market, if Bitcoin still cannot break through 30,000 after rebounding, we should reduce our positions decisively. At this point, we must make some profit-taking operations. The continuation of this wave of market did not reach the mainstream and cottage as expected, but was robbed of popularity and funds by meme and BRC20. Therefore, we can only lower our expectations for the rotation of cottage market, which is also the problem I was most worried about before. The tail market has indeed come, but it is not the currency we configured.

In addition, CAKE has fallen badly in the past few days. The price of the configuration is 4 dollars, which has been cut in half. Even with the cost of mining, it is still a huge loss. Among the more than ten mainstream coins configured, CAKE is the one that has fallen the most. For this kind of coin, don’t think about buying the bottom in batches to spread the cost. The purpose of configuration is to avoid too single position, so as not to fall into a passive situation. As long as the position of a single coin is limited, even if it is zero, our overall position is profitable. There is no need for us to delve into the reasons for the decline of CAKE. The result is that the judgment was wrong, at least at this stage. So we should not continue to fall too deep. Some positions that are not reasonably configured should also be adjusted through this incident.

Regarding fans asking me when the bull market will come, here is a prediction of the time nodes of BTC’s violent bull market in 2024 and 2025:

The first crazy period: September 2024-March 2025.

The second crazy period: October 2025-December 2025.

Here are the reasons:

1. The market in the second half of 2023 will be extremely boring, and the Fed’s determination to reduce inflation to 2% will not change.

2. High interest rates will be maintained in the second half of the year, and there will be no additional capital inflow into the cryptocurrency market.

3. The expectation of interest rate cuts will start to be hyped at the end of 2023, and the cryptocurrency market will stabilize and there will be no more panic.

4. The halving expectation began to be hyped at the beginning of 2024. Old investors returned and brought new investors with them. New investors with smart minds and the ability to speculate gradually entered the market.

5. In early 2024, the Federal Reserve will cooperate with the election and start cutting interest rates and releasing money.

6. The Russian-Ukrainian war will stop before June 2024. In July, the candidates for the presidential election will be announced. Whoever can bring peace and economic growth will have a high support rate.

7. In September 2024, a violent bull market will start.

Summarize:

1. The bearish outlook for the second half of 2023 remains unchanged, but the market will not be worse than in 2022, and the decline will be limited.

2. Starting from 2024, invest in value coins and don’t be afraid if they fall. Remember: invest regularly and hold on.

3. Starting from 2024, if anyone is still shouting empty words in your ear, give him a slap in the face. If not now, when?

The flowers are so beautiful that they are dazzling. Can BRC-20 retail investors really benefit?

With such high transaction fees, are there really so many people making profits on BRC-20?

Various platforms, including Twitter, have been reporting a lot about BRC-20 related meme coins. Many KOLs have taken the lead and said they have made a lot of money on BRC-20. ORDI, known as the first BRC-20 token, has now exceeded $27 per unit. Accompanying the wealth effect are countless BRC altcoins and meme coins.

UniSat data shows that the total number of BRC coins has reached an astonishing 14,690. Most of them are uncirculated coins that have not been engraved yet.

Although the market can easily make people feel anxious that "there is gold everywhere, but I can't find it", the fact is that there are not as many people who make money on BRC as imagined. According to Ordspace data, the total market value of BRC-20 has reached 1,023,516,333 (about 1 billion) US dollars. More than 150 tokens have been traded today.

Given the "quasi-NFT" order-listing trading model of BRC-20, except for a few leading projects, most tokens have very scarce liquidity. In terms of trading volume, Ordspace data shows that there are only four BRC-20s with a 24-hour trading volume of over one million US dollars: ORDI, VMPX, NALS, and DRAC.

Coingecko data shows that this figure is exactly 97th in today's market. In comparison, BTC's daily trading volume is $15.7 billion and ETH's trading volume is $9.8 billion.

This data is not outstanding and it is difficult to accommodate too much capital and a large number of users. In recent days, some analysts and investors have made estimates based on the on-chain activity data, and the number of active BTC-20 players may be only around 10,000, and even fewer have made substantial profits.

In this meme season, a meme coin called TURBO also surged for a short period of time. This token uses ChatGPT as a marketing selling point, and its planning, operation, and contract are all completed by ChatGPT under human instructions. Due to the surge in the popularity of this meme, KOLs in the Chinese world also launched a similar AI concept meme coin imitation disk ZPC.

Unfortunately, the token failed in less than two days, with the founder dumping the token and selling it, causing the price to fall rapidly. A large number of investors who participated in the co-funding suffered considerable losses.

A more typical case is the "Xitan Coin" scam that was popular a few days ago and received publicity from many well-known KOLs.

Whenever meme craze occurs, fake projects and scam projects always emerge. When investing in meme hype, memecoin is a risky cryptocurrency, and its pure hype nature makes its future even more unpredictable.

To destroy someone, you must first make him crazy

History has told us more than once that the popularity of memes is often a harbinger of the market’s demise.

In May 2021, DOGE rose to its highest point in history, reaching $0.74 per coin. The community unanimously called for Dogecoin to break through the target price of $1. But we all know what happened next - the market quickly turned into a cold winter, and the current price of DOGE is only around $0.074 per coin, only one-tenth of what it was then.

History doesn’t always repeat itself, but at least there is a certain “rhyme”. Whether it’s the craze for BRC, the carnival for ERC altcoins, or the mass issuance of coins by KOLs, these have caused FOMO and fraudulent behavior, and do not constitute a healthy and benign market.

More importantly, given the unique narrative and community culture of memecoins, most of them are short-lived. BRC-20 Due to its convenience in issuing coins and the uniqueness of the token name, issuing coins has become an extremely simple and low-cost thing.

If all 4 characters are letters, there are about 450,000 potential combinations. If a combination of letters and numbers is used, there are at least 1.68 million potential combinations. In this vast sea of ​​permutations and combinations, let's reflect on whether we are lucky enough to avoid such a huge hype space.

Although market sentiment is high, many community users believe that a short-term market collapse is not far away. After all, the last stop of many previous bull markets was a "meme carnival", which once again reminds investors to avoid blind FOMO.

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.