In 2011, the return rate of Bitcoin from bull market to bear market was -92.9%, the highest point was 31U and the lowest point was 2.2U
In 2014, the return rate of Bitcoin from bull market to bear market was -86.7%, the highest point was 1240U and the lowest point was 164U
In 2017, the return rate of Bitcoin from bull market to bear market was -83.7%, the highest point was 19878U and the lowest point was 3234U
The 2021 Bitcoin bull market to bear market return rate is -77.5%. The highest point is 69000 U and the lowest point is 15476 U
The above data cannot be said to be accurate to the millimeter, but it is roughly accurate and can be used as an observation sample.
I don’t know if you have noticed that before 2021, the lowest point of each bear market was higher than the highest point of the previous bull market.
Why did 2021 break the record? Because 2021 was a turbulent year and an incomplete bull market in the history of Bitcoin development.
The bull market price in 2025, according to historical data, is 69000U/0.3=230000U. This is also the origin of the price in my mind.
I divided it by 0.3 because I calculated a 70% drop from the bull market peak. In fact, the decline is decreasing with each bull market because more people are unwilling to sell their coins.
Bitcoin is used by the rich to store assets. The poor have no money and do not need to store it. Speculators and traders do not regard Bitcoin as a medium of storage. In their eyes, Bitcoin is just a gambling tool to earn legal currency. So this is the truth behind the decreasing number of Bitcoins in the hands of most people. Bitcoins eventually flow to the rich.
If the Bitcoin social experiment is fully successful, then owning 0.36 Bitcoins will make you an elite, or someone with a net worth of millions of dollars.
I think the price will not fall below the 21-year bull market high of 69,000 U. Then I will calculate based on this price, and the bull market price is about 230,000 U.S. dollars. 6900000/0.3 is obtained
The current price is $61,706, which means that the price you buy now may be near the lowest point of the next bear market. This is the fundamental reason why you have to stay in Bitcoin for two rounds if you want to make a fortune. Even if you buy in this round, you can only make 3.7 times, and you can't make a fortune. The price of the next bull market is 230,000/0.35=657,142 dollars 657,142/61,706=10.6 times. 10 times can change your fate, everything else is nonsense.
If you don’t make 10 times your money, it’s not enough for you to step out of the rich class, it’s not enough for you to be financially free, and it’s impossible for you to be economically liberated. So from now on, you can join the Bitcoin hoarding business. If you can make 10 times your money from now until 2029-2030, just hoard Bitcoin.
If you dislike the slow pace and want to start a business to earn 10 times more through other things, then you are not an ordinary person or you have other good luck. Hoarding Bitcoin may not be suitable for you. You should leave this opportunity to other ordinary workers. Don't compete with people who can't make a lot of money for Bitcoin, you will push up the price. But I know that capital is inherently profit-seeking. The first people to wake up to the issue of hoarding Bitcoin must be the rich.
If you have already been exposed to the cryptocurrency world, you are very lucky. This is one of the few uncrowded roads that can lead to financial freedom.
If you want to be quicker, I think the feasible way is to work hard to earn fiat currency outside the market, and then make money in the market through various arbitrage, short selling, and finding new narrative tracks to make money back on Bitcoin. This is what I do myself. I have no prejudice against air coins and meme coins, and I have no prejudice against various ways of playing in the industry. My only criterion is to make my Bitcoin more.
I have finished writing, keep it up. I am a masseur in Circle B, an old investor who sincerely wishes you to get rich in the cryptocurrency circle.
