$BTC Black Swan

1. Black swan events that occur before the halving or during the bull market will not interrupt the bull market process.

2. A black swan event at the end of a bull market will end the bull market and even directly enter a bear market.

3. Black swans in the encryption market include regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks, global macro events, and Ponzi model collapse. The historical declines are more than 40% and last for more than one month.

4. Black swan events occur almost every year. Black swan events in the next year may be related to traditional financial macro events (debt crisis, banking problems, economic slowdown)

5. To deal with black swan events, you need to understand the currency cycle, asset diversification (US stocks, crypto, OTC cash flow), and hedging risks through options or hedging

Black swan time points to pay attention to

1. In March before the halving, the 312 incident and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank occurred. The stock market fluctuated greatly in March, and several financial crises occurred in this month.

2. May after the halving, the 519 and LUNA incidents occurred in history in May, and after the halving, it was a key node in the Fed’s interest rate cut game.

3. One year after the halving, from May to July 2025, the historical 9.4 and 5.19 events that interrupted the bull market process due to policies all occurred one year after the halving. Before that, the market generally If there are signs of overzealousness, the government will intervene

4. From November to December of 2025, there are several time nodes for the end of the bull market, such as the 2017 historical high, the 2021 historical high, and the 2022 FTX incident. It mainly depends on whether Bitcoin has made significant progress in the traditional financial market, such as the first two This time, the bear market started because of CMEbtc futures and Yuehe btc futures ETF.