Yesterday I posted a video that said Bitcoin is going to drop to 38,500.

Some people think that I am missing out on the rhythm. Please reply to this article.

1. First of all, this round$BTC In the market from 69,000 to 15,500, I posted a Weibo at the beginning of 2022 when Bitcoin was 47,500: Bitcoin was in a large-scale 3-wave decline, and the 3rd wave bearish position was 17,500. Later it was also realized. For details, please refer to this Weibo article: http://t.cn/A6YWi52D Old fans who have been following me for a long time know that I had an account before. In the last round of bear market operation, I should be the first to bearish Bitcoin to 17,500 (the Bitcoin price was 47,500 at that time) Figure 1.

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2. After Bitcoin bottomed out at 17,500, I published an article in May last year (actually several times). Reference articles: 1. http://t.cn/A6YWJD09 2. http://t.cn/A6plOdrw Figure 2. At that time, the lowest price of Bitcoin was 24,500. Under the bearish sentiment of the entire platform, I could not publish this article and was ridiculed by many people. I resolutely increased my position in Bitcoin. Until now.

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3. Finally, let me explain why I said that Bitcoin would have a big correction to 38,500 or 32,000 when all the KOLs on the platform said that Bitcoin would start a bull market and rise to 100,000 and 200,000. In the above 1 and 2, I have proved my practice in the last bear market and this correction bull market. There is a saying that "practice is the only criterion for testing truth". I don't mean to quote it here, but I am also a spot holder from the beginning to now. My current bearish view is not because of "missing the opportunity" or "setting the pace", but simply continuing to share my views and insights on the current market as mentioned above, and sharing it with everyone.

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Finally, I still want to talk about why I look at the problem of Bitcoin's decline and correction. Bitcoin's current rise to 56,500 is actually a mid-level 5-wave rise. It's just that my definition of Bitcoin's rise is 56,500 as the high point of the 5th wave. In fact, book friends who are familiar with the "wave theory" also know that there must be 3 waves after 5 waves. If the calculation starts from 56,500, the 3-wave decline is shown in Figure 3. Of course, Bitcoin has not risen to 56,500 yet. At present, my price prediction can only be regarded as a guess. If Bitcoin does not continue to rise, but starts to fall so far, then the price will be recalculated.

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In fact, we also need to combine the important event of Bitcoin "halving".
I have previously published an article on my views on Bitcoin halving: http://t.cn/A6YWJD0C Figure 4. My view on Bitcoin halving is very simple: "History is always right." I think the same is true for this round of Bitcoin halving. It is very simple: first fall and then rise (this rise may be 3 months, 6 months after Bitcoin halving...). For my views on Bitcoin halving, you can directly read the above-cited article. This article will not explain too much.

In general, I think there are two reasons why Bitcoin is falling.
1. Bitcoin rises 5 waves and then falls 3 waves
2. Historical information data of Bitcoin halving
3.……

Thank you for reading this article. I am only posting this article to get some ideas out of the way. I hope that technical traders can point out the content that is not mentioned in this article. Goodbye.