When will Bitcoin break its ATH? November 2024. When will the bull market end? September 2025. When will most of the new x100 alts be released? January-July 2024. Why do I think this? I'll tell you in this article 👇
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This time will NOT be different.
For the last 2 years all I have heard is: “This time everything will be different.” People wrote that the bear market would be longer because of FTX and the recession... Others said that BTC would break through its ATH faster because of the ETF... However, everything remained exactly the same.
Top of the market
In 2017, the bull market peaked exactly 29 months before the halving. In 2021, he did the same.
Yes, you will say that this could just be a coincidence. But what if I told you that this is not true. And here's why 👇
Duration of the bear market
The 2018 and 2022 bear markets lasted exactly 12 months. This is crazy considering that many people said this bear market would be much longer and deeper.
But was it deeper?
Bear Market Depth
No, that's not true. Bitcoin fell 84% in the 2018 market. In the 2022 market, the pullback was only 77%.
So all the drama surrounding the bear market ended up being exactly the same length as the previous one, and percentage-wise even better.
All time ATH
In the last two cycles, Bitcoin broke its all-time high 7 and then 8 months after the halving.
So far, the ETF hasn't hit 100k overnight as many expected. I think that, like the last two times, this will happen in 7-8 months, that is, in October-November 2024.
Bull market
The last three bull cycles lasted 9 and 11 months, respectively. This one could be longer, but I think 9-11 months is a good goal to keep in mind.
I think the next wave will peak in September 2025, give or take a month. And we should talk about profit taking strategy.
Taking profit
I will take partial profits gradually throughout the growth period. I believe that if there is a big growth, you should withdraw 5%-10% to lock in the profit.
A lot of people say, "Don't sell strong coins"...nope. In cryptocurrency, a coin can go from strong to dead in just a few hours.
Throughout 2024, I plan to gradually take profits on coins that have shown good growth. I will transfer part of the profit into new coins, which I purchase immediately after listing as part of the strategy I talk about in my Telegram channel (Search for cryptosei4).
As we get closer to 2025, I will increase profit taking and do so more aggressively, and most of this capital will no longer be re-entering the market. By November 2025, I plan to be 90% OUT of the market.
New projects
Most of the successful cycle-defining alts emerged a few months before and a few months after the halving.
That's why I've been saying for a long time that you shouldn't get into projects too early. But now we are in the golden period of launching projects.
Some of the projects that recently entered the market and that I got involved in:
$MANTA Network - review and forecast (link will come a little later)
AltLayer - analysis and forecast (link will be a little later)
While I am waiting for the release of new projects, which I talk about on the Cautious Investor channel, I keep my capital partly in stables and partly in fundamentally strong alts. When the time comes, I will sell them and enter into new promising coins.
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