According to Shenzhen TechFlow, Greeks.live researcher Adam said on social media that the U.S. economic data in October was strong and the market expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on November 8 have dropped significantly.
Based on the calculation of 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market’s expected probability of the next interest rate cut of 25 Bp is 85%, and the expected probability of no interest rate cut is 15%. This data is significantly lower than last month.
At the same time, the predicted probability of Trump being elected president has increased significantly in recent days, and the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump.
Judging from the options data, the market has low expectations for volatility in October, with the at-the-money IV for the month already below 45%, while the at-the-money IV for the option expiring a week later on November 8 is 55%. This shows that most market participants are cautious about betting on the market this month, and continuing to wait and see is the current mainstream sentiment.