According to TechFlow, U.S. stock index futures fell as traders awaited non-farm payrolls data, which is expected to show a rebound in employment in August and a slight drop in the unemployment rate. S&P 500 futures fell nearly 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8%, and Dow futures fell nearly 0.3%. Concerns about an excessive economic slowdown have prompted risk assets to retreat this week, with the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield falling 18 basis points since Tuesday.
Swap contracts fully reflect the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in two weeks, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is about one in three. But Citi traders expect deeper rate cuts, predicting three 50 basis point cuts this year.
“If the data is weak, then risk markets like equities will be hit hard,” said Bilal Hafeez, chief executive and head of research at Macro Hive.