Note: This article is a summary of the video content, so it is relatively brief. The video was published in the afternoon, so the chart is a little delayed, but the views are consistent.
Factors contributing to this round of sol price increases:
capital
foundation
New Applications
memecoin
Conclusion: The market is overheated and a correction is expected.
SOL token distribution structure:
The currently available data shows that the community accounts for 38.9%, the team accounts for 12.8%, and the foundation accounts for 10.5%. Based on this calculation, the proportion in the hands of investors is approximately 30.7% (1.6% in the strategic round, 12.9% in the genesis round, and 16.2% in the seed round).
Conclusion: The previous decline was huge, the dealer changed sufficiently, and the chips are currently concentrated, which is convenient for market making.
Sol's concerns
The selling pressure from FTX creditors is the main factor
The assets currently compensated by FTX include:
Compensation conditions: US dollar acceptance
Total liabilities: $7 billion
As of August 31, 3.4 billion has been recovered (why August 31? Because the verdict was announced in September)
Less other cash and bonds
Total shortfall: 1.7 billion (August 31)
Current progress: Top 10 recovered assets > USD 9 billion (market value)
Will capital slowly sell off its chips at this point in time?
Conclusion: According to the on-chain tracking data, creditors have sold more ETH, and a large amount of SOL has not yet been sold. There is indeed a huge expectation of selling.
technical analysis:
Daily chart: No clear signs of a turnaround
Four hours: MACD top divergence appears, but it does not mean a trend reversal
One hour:
The moving average is tangled and enters the adjustment rhythm. There are short-term opportunities for short selling.
source：
Ni Da’s tweet on FTX’s compensation:
https://twitter.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/1739499979402875092
FTX's ETH compensation address: https://etherscan.io/address/0xc31ffd095d02223e1c06cad66bddb64b35f15be2
SOL's strong logic (chip lock):
https://twitter.com/lianyanshe/status/1738954454811148358
Solana Research and Analysis Report:
5.3 FTX’s staking operation Many investors are concerned that the unlocking and selling of FTX will cause the price of Solana to plummet, but this will not happen overnight, but will only happen gradually after the FTX lawsuit ends. In addition, what we have seen so far is that FTX did not sell, but instead pledged its holdings of SOL and ETH. This move strengthened the fundamentals of Solana altcoins and prevented selling for a period of time.
Soft union, capital support, automatic lock-up, effective at a certain time. Solana and FTX are not self-developed public chains like Binance and BSC, but external ecological unions. FTX holds SOL that needs to be unlocked within a certain period. As long as it is not declared dead immediately, there is time for maneuvering. Solana's investors are top capitals such as a16z and Multicoin, and they will not just watch SOL go directly to zero.
The author analyzed that FTX’s strategy is not to quickly sell off SOL and other assets, because this cannot solve or alleviate the problems faced by FTX, but to continue to participate in the stabilization and maintenance of SOL’s market value, so as to consolidate its own base and try to weaken and solve the current problems in the process. This is a huge positive news for SOL.
https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/49837
