A few personal thoughts💡

1. Russia currently has the upper hand in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The United States took the lead and approved a wave of German Leopard 2s. With tanks, fighter jets are not far away as the next step. Once this gap is opened, Russia is forced into a corner (it wants a bayonet). )

2. There is a high probability that a certain country will take action (the ideal time is before the 2024 US election)

3. The logic of recession is still there. The market is currently pricing in another interest rate cut this year. Powell’s butt is uncertain. I personally think that the dove in the 🦅 this time is a political mission and cannot fully reflect the true situation of the market.

4. During the U.S. debt crisis, the two parties began to quarrel, and finally shook hands and raised the debt ceiling. However, this time the bond countries (you know) did not pay the bill, so the economic separation between China and the United States was inevitable. You can refer to the experiences of various countries during this period. Gold reserves​​​