With Donald Trump officially taking office as the President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this is a definite signal for a series of reform measures to be introduced, especially for the emerging cryptocurrency industry. After Bitcoin broke through $100,000 to create a new high, it seems that the crypto industry has fallen into a swamp. Bitcoin has been jumping up and down around the $100,000 mark. In addition, there will be an extremely long vacuum of crypto news in February, so the market outlook needs to be treated with caution.
From campaigning to being shot and then to being elected: the biggest benefits and expectations were given in advance!
A look back at the entire process from Trump's campaign to election, he presented ten new cryptocurrency policies at the 2024 Bitcoin conference, most of which were structured as 'If I am elected, I will XXXX'. Let's review them together:


Make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital


Stop suppressing the cryptocurrency industry within one hour of taking office


Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC


Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve


Fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler


Prevent the U.S. from selling its held Bitcoin


Suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. debt issue


Propose a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy


Establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee


Reduce the prison sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht


Among them, 'Making the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital' will spotlight the crypto community and garner support from more voters involved in cryptocurrency trading for his presidential campaign. Trump's series of remarks has injected optimism into the market, but with the end of the inauguration, there have not been immediate specific actions to fulfill these promises in the short term, leading some investors to take a wait-and-see approach.
Just a couple of days ago, Trump held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, initially marketed as an economic development announcement, revealing plans by Dubai developer Damac Properties to invest $20 billion in building data centers in the U.S. However, during this press conference, Trump raised four new topics: increasing military spending proportions for NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the U.S., not abandoning military control of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to 'American Gulf'.
The 'territorial expansion desire' hinted at in his remarks has suddenly heightened international tensions, with growing sentiments of confrontation between nations, which indirectly caused turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a downward trend. According to news from January 7, Coinglass data shows that $346 million in cryptocurrency market contracts were liquidated in 24 hours, including $282 million in long positions and $63.47 million in short positions. The total amount liquidated for BTC was $69.59 million, while for ETH it was $59.68 million.
From a previous campaign period remark 'Fight!' after being shot, to positive statements about cryptocurrency during the Bitcoin conference, to finally being elected president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the cryptocurrency industry, which in turn has provided him with more support and funding. By January 20, when he officially takes office, it is highly likely that the cryptocurrency industry will enter a phase where 'real bullish news landing is actually bearish'.
February: No wind, no waves, the market remains stagnant
Let's take a look at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule for 2025.


First meeting: January 28–29, 2025, to decide on interest rates


Second meeting: March 18–19, 2025, to decide on interest rates + economic outlook


StarEx exchange analysts believe strong data has dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly. Previously, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025, but this expectation has been rapidly adjusted following recent economic data releases. Some analysis firms even believe the Federal Reserve may not cut rates at all this year; if they do, the extent will be very limited. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, 'More and more signs indicate that inflation is on the rise,' suggesting that given the timing of the government transition, the Federal Reserve may have completed its last rate cut for this cycle.
In combination, regarding the first Federal Reserve meeting, the recent noticeable correction in U.S. stocks has also brought significant uncertainty to the market, with a high probability that the interest rate meeting this month will maintain the current rates, and there will be no further bullish news in the short term.
Additionally, reviewing various Web3 calendars, the cryptocurrency industry in February is calm as water, with no major movements occurring, leading to a period of cryptocurrency news vacuum. The cryptocurrency market in February is likely to present a trend of sideways consolidation with low trading volume and reduced volatility. Cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, showing neither a significant upward trend nor a notable downward trend. Moreover, trading activity will decrease, leading to an overall reduction in market activity and smaller price fluctuations.
Cryptocurrency pioneer Elon Musk: X will not adopt cryptocurrency for payments in the near future
Recently, in a live test on X, Musk discussed topics related to X Payments, stating, 'There are no plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments services in the near future; we need a license. We are currently focusing on fiat currency and effectively launching X Payments services.'
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency; perhaps it is due to compliance considerations for platform payments, as fiat currency payments better align with the current developmental needs and compliance requirements. However, this has left many cryptocurrency enthusiasts feeling like they were struck with a hammer, creating panic.
Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a recent blog post that in the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether dollar liquidity can offset the effects of Trump's slow policy implementation. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market trend in the first quarter is difficult to grasp, making it almost impossible to capture definitive bullish news, and a cautious wait-and-see approach may not be a better choice.
Summary
Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the cryptocurrency industry during his campaign and promised to make the U.S. the global cryptocurrency capital, his actual actions after taking office remain unclear. As the cryptocurrency news front enters a vacuum in February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainties and the impact of international situations on the market. After Trump takes office, whether the ideal cryptocurrency nation he has envisioned can create a new wave in the crypto space, or whether the promised new cryptocurrency policies can be implemented quickly, will be enough to form a new round of bullish news, pushing Bitcoin to higher market levels.

#BTC