As the US employment data rebounded, the number of JOLTs job vacancies in November exceeded expectations by a wide margin. All parties lowered their expectations for the Fed's subsequent rate cuts. The cryptocurrency market, gold and US stocks fell accordingly. BTC quickly fell from a high of around $102,000 to $94,000, and showed a small-scale volatile downward trend in the past two days, reaching a low of $91,000.
What’s worse is that various negative news have emerged one after another. The Ethereum Foundation sold 100 ETH again; the US Department of Justice was approved to sell the seized Silk Road bitcoins worth $6.5 billion. This makes people wonder, is the bull market still there?
Trump's inauguration date is confirmed to be January 20. Is the decline here a cleanup of long leverage to reduce the weight of the car and thus continue the upward trend more healthily, or has the market already priced in the expectation of Trump taking office as the US president and officially entered the stage of large distribution? Let's see what traders think.
Macro analysis
@Maoshu_CN
The new 30-year long bond auction saved the US stock market. Currently, the focus is on the volatility of non-farm payrolls data. The auction was $22 billion, and the winning rate was 4.913%, which was lower than the market yield of 4.920% after the auction. The winning rate of this auction was lower than the market rate, indicating that the auctioneer was satisfied with the yield of 4.913%, which also means that the rise in short-term long-term bond yields has reached a stage position, and short-term yields may not rise significantly. The expected stabilization of yields or future declines have improved the financing environment of enterprises, while strong market demand has weakened pessimistic expectations. Most importantly, this auction dispelled the panic that long-term bond interest rates will continue to rise. For BTC, the most important thing on Thursday is to complete the sideways stabilization, partially change hands, and then patiently wait for the release of employment data on Friday. I hope that this week's employment data will not be too bad, otherwise the price structure of BTC may fall below the daily range.
@Phyrex_Ni
The Fed's current interest rate cut is based on two factors: the economy and inflation. In the short term, the economy focuses more on labor data. Let's not talk about inflation, which is currently within the Fed's expectations. In the short term, a decline in inflation also requires economic cooperation.
The focus is on labor, which is what Powell has repeatedly emphasized. There are two key points about labor: one is the unemployment rate; the other is the wage growth rate.
The previous value of non-farm payrolls was 227,000, and the market expected 160,000. According to this data, there is a high probability that non-farm payrolls will decrease, and there is also a high probability that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged or rise slightly. So theoretically, this is slightly more positive. If the unemployment rate rises, but employment is also rising, it should be a big positive. However, the rising unemployment rate and falling employment indicate that the US economy has a downward trend. Moreover, this data is completely opposite to the job vacancies on Tuesday, because job vacancies mean that employers have more manpower needs, which should reduce the unemployment rate and improve employment data. Therefore, the market expects that the economy will be very good and the Federal Reserve will reduce or maintain the number of interest rate cuts. However, if the non-farm payrolls on Friday show an increase in unemployment rate and a decrease in employment, it means that the Federal Reserve will open up more interest rate cuts, and it is a bit early to say that the economy is in recession now. The market data is still good, so I think it really happened, which should be a small positive. Of course, if the market insists on interpreting it as an economic recession, then there is nothing we can do. Therefore, the unemployment rate data is always bad data. The increase in unemployment rate takes into account the economic recession, and the number of interest rate cuts increases. The decrease in unemployment rate takes into account the strong economy, and the number of interest rate cuts remains unchanged or decreases.
Technical Analysis
@CryptosLaowai
Bitcoin currently has an overly obvious head and shoulders top at the daily level. The news of the approval of the sale of Silk Road on December 30 was released at 94k, which is suspected to be information of market manipulation. The short-term bottom is 92k. It is expected to break through the 100k trend line and touch 104k to lure more buyers, and then the big crash will begin.
@caifuziyou688
Long-term trend intact
The short-term trend is still in line with higher low and higher high
In summary, the bullish trend continues and we should continue to hold. The current trend belongs to the second exploration category.
@Xbt886
Last night's decline took out all long stops on the dip and then reclaimed the 7-week VAL position, which is a strong bullish signal.
@Alan416993125
There is a high probability that the low point of this adjustment will appear next week, with a probability in the yellow circle. After reaching the yellow circle, it may consolidate for 14 to 28 days before launching a potential attack, with an expected target of 116,500 US dollars.
@TheCrowtrades
As mentioned earlier, $94,600 is an important level.
If we manage to stay above it, $100,400 will be the next stop
Data Analysis
@CryptoPainter_X
The current distribution of intensive liquidation areas in the futures market is shown in the figure. A wave of rapid decline last night liquidated the long liquidity accumulated two weeks ago. Judging from the liquidation records in the figure, the market is still in a back-and-forth liquidation structure under the background of volatility, that is, it goes wherever there is liquidity. If there were no non-agricultural data on Friday, I would think that the support here is effective and the callback is in place, but the question is how the market views the non-agricultural data; and how the market reacts, which is completely unpredictable, so whether there will be a rebound here depends on tonight's data;
@roger73005305
The short forces are 8 times that of the long forces. The last time the long-short ratio was this high was at the bottom of 49,000 on August 5 and the second test of 52,000. It felt like an obvious short squeeze, driving retail investors to the short forces. When the market collapsed, market makers and whales withdrew a large amount of BTC from CEX.
@Felix_Hsu
From the URPD data, the early exit of profitable chips is the main reason for the price drop. Due to the sharp drop, the stop loss of losing chips has been aggravated. But we can also see that there are still many people "bottom-fishing" between 92000-94000. BinanceBTC fund chart shows a continued distribution trend. Wait for the weekly cross.
Options Market Data
According to Deribit data, BTC options with a nominal value of $1.8 billion will expire and be delivered today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.66 and a maximum pain point of $97,000. In addition, ETH options with a nominal value of $460 million will expire and be delivered today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.48 and a maximum pain point of $3,450.
