XRP is facing a pivotal moment as it approaches the “Fork C” resistance level at $3.90. To avoid a catastrophic 74% crash to $1, XRP must close above $4 on the weekly chart with strong confirmation before March 10, 2025. This article looks at the key factors that could influence XRP’s price trajectory and what needs to happen to ensure a bullish breakout.

The importance of breaking the $4 threshold

The "Fork C" resistance level of $3.9 has traditionally been a major barrier for XRP. Failing to surpass this level has led to significant declines in the past:

  • December 2015: XRP fell -89.59% after hitting a resistance level.

  • May 2017: The asset dropped -68.97% in a similar scenario.

  • September 2018: The subsequent correction of -64.35% was another failure at the resistance level.

  • April 2021: XRP experienced a significant correction of -73.39% after struggling at a critical resistance level.

The average decline from these events is approximately 74%, highlighting the high level of risk if XRP cannot convincingly clear this critical zone.

Key factors influencing XRP's price

1. Bitcoin price volatility

The price of XRP shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin (BTC). A decline in BTC often leads to a spillover effect on altcoins, including XRP. If BTC experiences significant weakness, it could increase selling pressure on XRP.

2. Declining network activity

Metrics such as daily active addresses and network growth are important indicators of investor engagement. A decline in these metrics reflects waning interest, which could impact XRP's price.

3. Unrealized profits among long-term holders

XRP has experienced periods of high unrealized profits, especially for long-term holders. If these holders decide to take profits, it could lead to a surge in selling pressure and exacerbate the bearish situation.

4. Whale sell-off

Large XRP holders (whales) have significant influence over market dynamics. A coordinated or widespread sell-off by whales could induce panic among retail investors, exacerbating the downward trend.

The path to $13-$15

Analyst EGRAG Crypto suggests that if XRP successfully breaks the $3.9 resistance level, it could trigger a bullish rally to $13-$15. However, achieving this goal will require overcoming several challenges:

  1. A strong weekly close above $4: To confirm the breakout, XRP must maintain a price above $4 with strong volume and momentum.

  2. The influence of market makers: Market makers often create barriers to upward price volatility, leading to breakouts or false consolidation phases. XRP must demonstrate resilience against such tactics.

  3. Wider market conditions: A favorable macroeconomic environment and optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market will play a crucial role in driving XRP's upward momentum.

Conclusion

The coming weeks are crucial for XRP as it must contend with the "Fork C" resistance level. Failing to break above $4 on the weekly chart with strong confirmation could lead to a sharp collapse of 74% down to $1. However, a successful breakout could pave the way for a surge to $13-$15, providing significant upside potential for investors. By monitoring key metrics such as network activity, Bitcoin performance, and whale behavior, investors can better navigate the risks and opportunities in XRP's price trajectory.

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