Tonight at 21:30, the United States will release non-farm data for December 2024. The market expects that the number of new non-farm jobs will be 160,000, lower than the previous value of 227,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2%, the same as the previous value. Combined with the statement of "slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts" in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, if the non-farm data is in line with expectations or the gap is not large, the Federal Reserve's determination to suspend interest rate cuts is not expected to waver.
Non-agricultural data tracking: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/data/ur
Data shows that the market has adjusted its expectations for the number and extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year. As of press time, the interest rate market is betting on a 93.1% chance that the Fed will suspend interest rate cuts this month; a 57.7% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March; and a large difference in the probability of a rate cut and keeping interest rates unchanged in May, which is almost the same.
New president about to take office: Bull market or prelude to crisis?
In the current situation, investors' pricing of Fed policy is gradually stabilizing, shifting focus towards potential policy changes that may arise with the inauguration of the new U.S. president. However, there are significant differences in the market's interpretation of Trump's upcoming administration:
• Optimists: Trump may push for a policy framework favorable to the development of cryptocurrencies, which would be a long-term positive.
• Bears: Concern that the Trump administration will expand the fiscal deficit, coupled with its tariff policy, may suppress global economic growth, constituting a bearish factor from a macro perspective.
At the same time, concerns about rising inflation in the U.S. have significantly impacted market sentiment. As U.S. Treasury yields rise to annual highs, there is a noticeable outflow of funds from risk assets. AICoin (aicoin.com) data shows that this week, BTC prices have retreated more than 11% from their highs, while mainstream coins like ETH and SOL have fallen more than 15%, with the total market capitalization evaporating by nearly $440 billion.
According to the editor's analysis, there is a negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and U.S. interest rates. As high-yield government bonds attract capital inflows, global liquidity decreases, and the liquidity support for the crypto market is weakening.
Is the $6.5 billion Bitcoin sale by the Department of Justice an overreaction in the market?
Currently, there are speculations in the market that the bull market has ended and Bitcoin is about to see '8' figures, with a surge in risk aversion sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has turned from greed to neutral for the first time since October 15.
List of large orders: Overview of BTC, ETH and other large holder orders and transactions: https://www.aicoin.com/vip
In addition, news yesterday stated that the U.S. Department of Justice was authorized to sell $6.5 billion worth of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road. This news heightened market concerns, especially during the transition between the Biden and Trump administrations. However, some analysts believe that the market's negative reaction to this news may be exaggerated, primarily based on the following points:
1. The rhythm of selling may be orderly to seek the best price, rather than a one-time shock to the market.
2. The market has partially digested expectations, and price adjustments may have already reflected this risk.
3. Since September 2024, the market has absorbed over 1 million Bitcoins sold by long-term holders, but the BTC price has still risen from $60,000 to over $100,000.
4. Historical data suggests that large-scale government sales are usually reflected in market prices in advance, with limited impact. For example, when Germany sold 50,000 Bitcoins in 2023, the market rebounded quickly after hitting bottom.
BTC's technical aspects are tense: head and shoulders pattern suppression.
Overall, tonight's non-farm payroll report, as the first important macro data for 2025, combined with the opening of the U.S. stock market, is expected to trigger significant volatility.
The list of large orders shows that the BTC bulls have started to take action, with a cumulative transaction of $576 million in buy orders over the past 24 hours, a net purchase of $206 million, and an average purchase price of $92,824.43, currently achieving a profit of 1.48%.
According to technical analysis, the current Coinbase BTC premium shows signs of turning positive, Bitcoin prices have re-established above the EMA52 moving average in a 45-minute custom period, and the downtrend channel in the 3-hour and 4-hour periods has been broken. Meanwhile, on the daily level, BTC prices are approaching the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
Key technical positions:
• Upper pressure: $95,450, $97,105
• Lower support: $92,000, $91,000
Summary
The market currently faces multiple variables from non-farm data, policy expectations, and the macro environment. In the short term, the volatility of Bitcoin prices will still be dominated by capital liquidity and market sentiment, while the long-term trend may depend on the policy direction of the new government. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of tonight's non-farm data on Fed policy expectations, while being alert to market changes after key technical position breakthroughs.
Recommended reading:
(Bitcoin performs 'pinning scare'! Bulls and bears fight, who will laugh last?)
(Non-farm effect: When traditional economic indicators move the digital currency giant wheel)
(Editor shares: Coinbase premium, small data, big use!)
Content for sharing only, for reference only, does not constitute any investment advice!
If you have any questions, feel free to join the 【PRO CLUB】 group to discuss with the editor~
