#比特币价格走势分析

Tonight at 21:30

The US unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for December will be announced.

Here are the key interpretations:

1. Unemployment Rate (Expected 4.2%)

Higher than expected: Bearish + dense, due to a weak job market.

Lower than expected: Short-term bullish, but long-term may be bearish. A decrease in the unemployment rate may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts.

2. Non-farm Data (Expected 160,000)

Higher than expected: Bearish, strong economic performance, hawkish expectations.

Lower than expected: Bullish, job market slowdown, the Federal Reserve may ease policy.

Tonight's two data points are of significant impact.

Need to pay attention to market sentiment's immediate reaction.

Today is an important day on the macro front.

Unemployment rate and non-farm employment data will be announced.

As mentioned earlier, CPI will be announced next week.

In the coming weeks, our main focus is on the changes in the consensus regarding future interest rate cuts.

For January, there is a clear consensus in the market that rate cuts are not expected.

The focus will be on the later stage of this easing cycle.

As there is no FOMC meeting in February,

market participants will turn their attention to the March meeting.

Currently, there is a 57% probability that there will be no rate cuts in March.

A 3-month pause in the easing cycle will bring uncertainty to the financial markets, as evidenced by the recent strengthening in the SPX index and the US dollar's price movement.

In the coming weeks, a decrease in this probability and an increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut will be bearish for the dollar (which has also reached a key resistance level) and will help the stock market and cryptocurrency space to rise again 📈

In the coming weeks,

Trump's initiatives and appropriate data will help with this.