Market observes Trump's inauguration: Is it 'good news fully priced in' or a rebound opportunity?

According to CoinDesk, analyst Omkar Godbole pointed out that the market's expectations for Trump's upcoming presidency may have already been priced in, and the inauguration on January 20 could become a critical juncture for 'good news fully priced in.'

Market sentiment and positioning changes

1. Defensive positioning heats up

• In the past two months, the market's risk appetite has risen due to Trump being seen as an 'economically friendly president,' driving up stocks and assets like Bitcoin.

• As the inauguration approaches, some traders may choose to take profits and shift towards defensive assets.

2. Potential variables in the crypto market

• Regulatory adjustments: Trump's policies may have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency regulatory framework. More open or clearer policies could attract more institutional funds.

• Bitcoin reserve strategy: The Trump administration may promote a national-level Bitcoin reserve, which will create long-term positive effects on the market.

Short-term trend observation: FOMC and NFP data are crucial

Singapore's QCP Capital emphasizes that **this week's FOMC (Federal Reserve meeting) and NFP (Non-Farm Payroll data)** will directly impact Bitcoin prices:

• If the data is strong: It may exacerbate expectations for the Federal Reserve's continued tightening of policies, suppressing the performance of risk assets, including Bitcoin.

• If the data is weak: The market may anticipate a slowdown in interest rate hikes, with risk appetite rebounding, providing a rebound opportunity for the crypto market.

Investor advice

• Cautious positioning: Before Trump's inauguration, avoid heavy bets and closely monitor policy signals and data changes.

• Long-term perspective: Even if short-term volatility intensifies, the long-term benefits of regulatory adjustments and strategic reserves may lay the foundation for the next rebound.

Summary

The market impact of Trump's presidency may be either 'good news fully priced in' or the starting point of a rebound, largely depending on market expectations after policy implementation. In the short term, FOMC and NFP data will provide important signals for the market, while cryptocurrency investors should remain flexible and pay attention to the long-term effects of future policies on Bitcoin.