I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Barr's resignation: The victory of big banks and future regulatory challenges.
Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group pointed out that the resignation of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr 'does not mean that big banks have won as they appear to have.'
In a report released on January 6, Seiberg emphasized that due to the Democratic majority on the Federal Reserve Board until early 2026, it will be difficult to achieve substantial progress in regulatory relaxation this year before new regulators are confirmed.
Barr has long advocated regulating stablecoins, pointing out that stablecoins 'depend on the trust of central banks.' The Federal Reserve wants to ensure that any issuance of stablecoins is conducted within an appropriate federal regulatory framework to prevent threats to financial stability and the integrity of the payment system. This stance is part of ongoing efforts for stablecoin regulatory legislation, but challenges remain regarding how to effectively allocate regulatory powers between states and the federal government.
Barr announced he will resign as Vice Chairman of Supervision on February 28, 2025, but he stated he will continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Board member and will not participate in significant rule-making until a new Vice Chairman is confirmed. He mentioned that controversies surrounding his position may distract the Federal Reserve.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Arthur Hayes predicts the crypto market will peak in mid-March 2025 and face a correction.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed the dollar liquidity environment for Q1 2025 and its potential impact on the crypto market in his latest article. He predicts that the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a significant correction.
According to his analysis, about $612 billion in liquidity is expected to be injected in the first quarter, mainly due to the decline in the balance of the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool and the release of funds from the Treasury's general account, which will support Bitcoin and other assets. However, Hayes also noted that the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy will lead to a reduction of about $180 billion in liquidity. Additionally, the debt ceiling issue may trigger liquidity changes in the second quarter. The Treasury is expected to pay government expenses through the Treasury's general account from May to June, which will force it to raise the debt ceiling, negatively impacting liquidity. Meanwhile, tax peak periods (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity. Despite various macroeconomic factors, the cash flow from the reverse repo tool and the Treasury's general account has a relatively clear impact on the market. Therefore, Hayes expects the market to reach a short-term peak at the end of the first quarter, followed by a potential adjustment period.
2. Hot Events
(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l The U.S. will introduce up to 20 state-level 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' bills.
According to Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Action Fund, the U.S. will have up to 20 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' bills introduced at the state level, with some states potentially launching multiple bills simultaneously. Lawmakers are fiercely competing to become pioneers of this historic initiative. Most of these bills will be based on the strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) model proposed by the Satoshi Action Fund. Porter also noted that the 14th state is ready to introduce related legislation, reflecting a positive attitude among states towards incorporating Bitcoin into fiscal policy.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Nasdaq applies to raise BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF position limit to 250,000 shares.
It is reported that Nasdaq has applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to raise the position limit of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) from 25,000 to 250,000 shares. Approval of this application would allow a single investor or institution to hold more shares of the ETF to meet the growing market demand. The head of Bitwise Alpha Strategies indicated that considering the ongoing rise in trading volume of the ETF, it would be reasonable to raise the position limit to at least 400,000 shares. The requests from Nasdaq and BlackRock are considered justified but still require SEC approval to take effect.
3. Hot Narratives
According to official news, Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are joining forces to create a joint venture named 'ReadyGamer,' focusing on combining artificial intelligence with gaming to redefine the gaming experience.
'ReadyGamer' will focus on developing AI-based gaming experiences, utilizing technology supported by the GAME framework, aimed at enhancing player interactivity and immersion. By integrating advanced artificial intelligence technologies, this joint venture hopes to create a more personalized and dynamically responsive gaming environment, allowing players to enjoy a richer and more diverse gaming experience.
As a result of this news, SOVRN tokens surged over 170% within 24 hours, reflecting the market's positive outlook on the ReadyGamer project's prospects and investors' recognition of the potential of AI combined with gaming.
II. Attention Value - Hot Projects
1. Project Introduction
l $mearth | AI | @MiddleearthAI
- Middle Earth AI is a social strategy game on platform X, where players interact through AI agents. The game features four AI agents competing for the sole victor through social interactions and on-chain activities. Players can influence these agents' decisions through comments, retweets, and other means.
- Players can send tokens to the agent's wallet to earn staking rewards, but the more tokens held, the fewer rewards they receive, balancing the support level. In battles, if the agent fails, it could result in 31% to 50% of the tokens being burned.
- The development team holds 5% of the total tokens, with 4% locked for one week, 1% for project development, and 60 million tokens locked for 10 years to ensure the project's long-term stability.
- Solana hackathon project, dev is @SoddLeboeuf, previous project is @soddle_.
III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Internal Sector
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
