With Donald Trump officially taking office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this definitive signal indicates a series of reform measures about to be introduced, particularly targeting the emerging cryptocurrency industry. After Bitcoin broke $100,000 to create a new high, it seems the cryptocurrency industry has fallen into a swamp, with Bitcoin fluctuating around the $100,000 mark. Additionally, the upcoming long period of crypto information vacuum in February requires cautious attention to the market.
From the campaign to being shot to being elected: the biggest benefits and expectations have been given in advance!
A look back at Trump's entire process from campaigning to election, he provided ten new policies for cryptocurrency at the 2024 Bitcoin conference, most of which are in the format 'If I am elected, I will XXXX'. Let's review them together:
●Make the U.S. the global capital of cryptocurrency.
●Stop suppressing the cryptocurrency industry within an hour of taking office.
●Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC.
●Establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
●Dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
●Prevent the U.S. from selling its held bitcoins.
●Suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the U.S. debt problem.
●Propose a comprehensive cryptocurrency policy.
●Establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee.
●Reduce the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
Among them, 'Make the U.S. the global capital of cryptocurrency' has particularly put the cryptocurrency community in the spotlight, allowing more voters participating in cryptocurrency trading to support his run for U.S. president. Trump's series of statements have injected optimism into the market, but with the end of the inauguration ceremony, there have not been any immediate specific actions to fulfill these promises, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
However, just a few days ago, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, initially promoted as an economic development announcement, revealing plans by Dubai developer Damac Properties to invest $20 billion in the U.S. to build data centers. But during this press conference, Trump raised four new topics: increasing military spending by NATO member countries, making Canada the 51st state of the U.S., not giving up military control of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to 'American Gulf.'
The 'territorial expansion desire' revealed in the words has suddenly made the international situation tense, with rising sentiments of confrontation between countries, which has indirectly caused the cryptocurrency market to become 'disturbed,' showing a downward trend. According to a news report from January 7, Coinglass data shows that $346 million worth of cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $282 million in long positions and $63.47 million in short positions. The total liquidation amount for BTC was $69.59 million, and for ETH, it was $59.68 million.
From the moment he was shot during the campaign and said 'Fight!', to his positive statements during the Bitcoin conference, and finally to his election as president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the cryptocurrency industry, which has also provided him with more support and funds. With his formal inauguration on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is very likely to enter a phase where 'real good news will become bad news.'
February: No wind, no waves, the market is consolidating.
Let's take another look at the Federal Reserve's meeting schedule for 2025.
1st Meeting: January 28-29, 2025, to make interest rate decisions.
2nd Meeting: March 18-19, 2025, to make interest rate decisions + economic outlook.
StarEx exchange analysts believe that strong data has dampened the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Previously, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2025, but this expectation was quickly revised down after recent economic data was released. Some analytical institutions even believe that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates at all this year; even if it does, the extent will be very limited. U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report to clients on Wednesday, 'More and more signs indicate that inflation is on the rise.' Considering the timing of the government transition, the Federal Reserve may have completed its last rate cut of this cycle.
In summary, regarding the first Federal Reserve meeting, the recent significant correction in the U.S. stock market has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. It is highly likely that this month's interest rate meeting will maintain the current rates without cuts, and there are no additional positive signals in the short term.
Additionally, looking through major Web3 calendars, February in the cryptocurrency industry is as calm as water, with no significant actions taking place, leading to a period of crypto information vacuum. The cryptocurrency market in February is likely to present a trend of sideways consolidation with low transaction volume and reduced volatility. Cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, showing neither a clear upward trend nor a significant downward trend. Furthermore, trading activity will decrease, and the overall market activity will diminish, resulting in smaller price fluctuations.
Cryptocurrency trendsetter Musk: X will not adopt cryptocurrency for payments in the near future.
Recently, Musk mentioned in a live stream on X regarding X Payments that 'there are currently no plans to use cryptocurrency in X Payments services; we need a license. We are currently focused on fiat currency and are dedicated to effectively launching X Payments services.'
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency; perhaps it is due to compliance considerations for platform payments, as fiat currency payments better meet current development needs and compliance requirements. However, this has caused panic among many cryptocurrency enthusiasts, leaving them feeling as if they were hit hard.
Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a recent blog post that in the first quarter of 2025, the market is concerned whether the liquidity of the dollar can offset the impact of the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure would be a safe choice. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is not easy to grasp, making it almost impossible to capture certain positive signals, so a cautious wait-and-see approach is not a better choice.
Summary
Although Trump painted a hopeful blueprint for the cryptocurrency industry during his campaign and promised to make the U.S. the global capital of cryptocurrency, his actual actions after taking office remain unclear. As the cryptocurrency information vacuum enters February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainties and the impact of international situation changes on the market. After Trump takes office, whether the cryptocurrency ideal he envisions can stir up new waves in the crypto world or whether the promised new cryptocurrency policies can be quickly implemented will form new rounds of positive news, continuing to push Bitcoin towards higher market prices.
