A reader mentioned a very common question at the end of the article these days:
If I missed the earliest stage of the project, what mindset should I use to evaluate whether it is still worth participating?
An important concept mentioned in this question is 'early stage.'
But in my experience, judging whether a project is still in its early stages is largely very subjective, and it is difficult to have an objective standard.
It is very likely that something we think we discovered is not new at all, but actually most people in the ecosystem have not come into contact with it yet; it is also possible that something we think is very fresh has already become commonplace for others in this ecosystem.
If I had to say there is a generally referable standard, my reference standard would be to see how frequently Twitter and related media mention this track or related projects.
But what constitutes 'many' and what constitutes 'not many' is again a matter of personal experience. After experiencing several bull markets in the crypto ecosystem, investors may be able to establish an intuitive judgment in their minds.
In addition, one can generally refer to the total circulating market value (FDV) of a new project’s token and compare its FDV with the market value of more mature project tokens in the current ecosystem.
For example, if the FDV of the token ranked 100th is 1.3 billion USD, then if a token's FDV is less than 1 billion USD, I think it is likely still in a stage of not much bubble.
For such projects, I no longer consider price to be a factor I should worry about.
If we can't find such a project based on the above criteria, then missing it is just missing it, and there's nothing to regret— even if I see a project I once considered but let go of soaring later, I should not generate emotions. I can reflect on whether I can adjust my judgment criteria in some aspects or what lessons I can learn to prepare for future opportunities.
If we are lucky enough to find such a project, what I focus on next is not the price, but the fundamentals of the project: such as the track, team, construction, etc.
But at this point, we often encounter another awkward situation: the project's materials are pitifully scarce, or even completely blank.
At this time, I feel that what I need most is courage—taking out assets that I can completely sacrifice and participating boldly according to my own ideas.
For example, when I first saw the Virtuals platform, it was this situation.
At that time, there were no exclusive interviews with project co-founders, and I can't remember where I saw the information about this platform, so I just curiously took a look at it.
After watching, I can roughly understand that it is financing AI agents in a manner similar to ICOs; beyond that, I have no deeper understanding.
At that time on the Virtuals platform, the top three were the three AI agents supported by the project team: LUNA, GAME, and CONVO. Then there were about one hundred or two hundred other counterfeit agents.
I once mentioned in an article that I don't have much feeling for LUNA.
As for GAME, when I looked at its introduction, I only had the impression that it was an agent related to games, but there were no details on what this agent could do, let alone a detailed introduction.
As for CONVO, I also didn't quite understand it. I seemed to feel it was related to the user experience of AI agents, but I couldn't find more information on what it actually does.
The remaining counterfeit agents I casually looked at seem no different from GPT; they probably just have a flashy exterior.
So in this situation, what am I thinking?
The first point I consider is: VIRTUAL is a platform token. Regardless of its success, all other agents will rely on it to list their tokens, so I have to buy it.
And what about the others?
I cannot believe those counterfeit products with no background, so after selecting, I can only choose those three agents supported by the platform.
This is my logic.
I have no profound understanding, no insider information, and certainly no foresight.
Around the end of December, the GAME project suddenly announced that they had developed an AI agent framework, which competes with ELIZA, and since then the project token skyrocketed.
But how could I know these things when I bought GAME?
This is completely the result of bold participation.