Why did the market rise and then fall this week? From Trump's dynamics to interest rate cut expectations, from the U.S. plan to sell BTC to the upcoming non-farm payroll data! Recent hot topics and their impact on the cryptocurrency market are analyzed.

Macro interpretation: Many friends may wonder why BTC showed strong momentum on Monday, seemingly poised to break new highs, only to plummet from the high of $102,762 on Tuesday, falling sharply to around $92,500.

On December 26, the day after Christmas (when it was Christmas in the U.S.), we analyzed in our research report that the resistance level for BTC was around $102,770, and the support level was around $92,520. This week, the market's highest and lowest points aligned with our predicted pressure and support levels.


This week, the global financial markets and the cryptocurrency market experienced multiple significant events and policy news, which not only reshaped market trends but also prompted investors to reassess future trends. Below is a summary of this week's hot events and an in-depth analysis of their impact on the cryptocurrency market.

1. Rumors of Trump's tariff policy triggered market volatility.

On Monday this week, following a report by the Washington Post that Trump's team was exploring a universal import tariff plan for key imported goods, the dollar index plummeted, while U.S. stock futures and the cryptocurrency market surged. This news reflects the market's high sensitivity to potential protectionist policies Trump may adopt. However, Trump's denial on Tuesday reversed market sentiment, leading to declines in both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin (BTC), highlighting the market's heightened vigilance regarding policy uncertainty.

2. Delay in Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations.

The market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier this year, but this week the market significantly delayed the first interest rate cut expectation to June or July. This change led to a readjustment of inflation expectations and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, putting pressure on dollar-denominated assets like U.S. stocks and BTC, resulting in price declines. This reflects the market's high attention to the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its significant impact on asset prices.

3. Trump's remarks triggered turmoil in the global asset markets.

Trump's series of remarks on inflation, interest rates, foreign policy, and military actions have further exacerbated the volatility in global asset markets. His idea of merging the U.S. and Canada using 'economic power,' as well as plans to overturn Biden's offshore drilling ban, demonstrate his tough stance on foreign policy. These statements negatively impacted the three major U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market, leading to a collective decline.

4. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal a path for interest rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reveal that although a 25 basis point interest rate cut was decided, the pace of cuts expected in 2025 will significantly slow down. Market participants still have uncertainty regarding the federal funds rate path for the coming year, which increases market volatility. The cryptocurrency market, as a high-risk asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

5. The U.S. government plans to sell BTC from the Silk Road case.

The U.S. government's plan to sell the BTC seized in the Silk Road case led to a brief drop in BTC. This incident highlights the impact of government policy on the cryptocurrency market. Although Trump stated he would not sell any BTC once in office, it remains to be seen whether the government can successfully sell these bitcoins.

6. Non-farm payroll and unemployment data are about to be released.

Non-farm payroll and unemployment data will be released this Friday evening. These two data points are crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and will directly impact the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies. Cryptocurrency market investors need to pay close attention to this data, as it may trigger significant fluctuations in market sentiment.

Comprehensive analysis: This week's hot events indicate that policy news, economic data, and government actions significantly influence the cryptocurrency market. Rumors about Trump's tariff policy, delays in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, Trump's tough remarks, and the government's plan to sell BTC have all exacerbated market volatility. Additionally, the release of non-farm payroll and unemployment data will provide new guidance for the market.

For cryptocurrency market investors, in such a volatile market environment, it is essential to remain calm and rational, closely monitor changes in policy dynamics and economic data to adjust investment strategies promptly. In the future, as more policies and economic data are released, the cryptocurrency market may face new opportunities and challenges.

BTC data analysis:

Once you stay in this market for a while, you'll notice that when the market rises, all you see are positive news, while when the market falls, negative news tends to dominate.

Many messages sometimes only serve to guide us and influence market bullish or bearish sentiment, while the media often reports with a bias, possibly due to certain interests involved. For example, those holding short positions might push for bearish narratives, while those holding long positions or wanting to expand spot profits might push for bullish narratives. This bias may not necessarily come from the media's own holdings but could stem from the capital controlling the media having corresponding positions.





For instance, this round of negative news caused the #U.S. stock market to decline, with a significant outflow of funds from the overnight #Bitcoin ETF, according to Coinank data, which reported an outflow of $569 million yesterday, along with the U.S. government's plan to sell #BTC.

U.S. officials today confirmed to media outlet DB News that the Justice Department has been authorized to liquidate 69,370 BTC (worth about $6.5 billion) seized in the Silk Road case. This news caused a brief drop in BTC.

It is reported that the Justice Department requested permission to sell these assets due to Bitcoin price fluctuations. When asked about the next steps, a Justice Department spokesperson stated, 'The government will act according to the ruling in this case.'

The progress of this event is 'approved for sale,' but the Justice Department is currently unable to determine when these bitcoins will be sold. There are only 11 days left until Trump officially takes office on January 20, and he has stated that he will not sell any bitcoins once in office. Given the efficiency of the U.S. government, it remains to be seen whether the Justice Department can successfully sell them.