One Bitcoin at 1 Million Dollars? New Bitcoin Price Model Shows Timeline for Major Milestone
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The new Quantile Bitcoin model provides a more conservative Bitcoin price prediction, emphasizing long-term trends and statistical patterns, and reflecting the extreme market conditions required for price increases. In contrast to some more optimistic short-term forecasts, the model indicates that Bitcoin may face a longer time span and more complex market factors in reaching the one million dollar price threshold.
Key conclusions of the model:
Possibility of one million dollars:
According to the Quantile Bitcoin model, the probability of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars in 2034 is 50%. This means that by that time, Bitcoin may gradually approach this target, with a two-year uncertainty interval.
The likelihood of reaching one million dollars by 2025 is extremely low, only 5%, and would require price fluctuations exceeding the historically common four standard deviations (4σ), which has never occurred in Bitcoin's history.
Short-term price forecast:
By 2025, a substantial leap in Bitcoin price to one million dollars is nearly unfeasible, as the market would need a bubble more intense than all historical fluctuations.
The model suggests that the probability of Bitcoin reaching 300,000 dollars by 2029 is 50%, with significant uncertainty around that date, and the specific timing may have a two-year deviation.
Bitcoin price growth and bubble cycles:
The Quantile model indicates that Bitcoin price growth typically follows a power law trend, and its increase is usually accompanied by the emergence of periodic bubbles. For instance, bubble cycles have occurred in the past (2013, 2017, 2021), with the next round potentially appearing in 2025 and 2029.
The model emphasizes that the increase in Bitcoin's price is usually accompanied by very severe volatility, and achieving the one million dollar target will require an unprecedented price bubble.
Future outlook:
The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars in 2034 is 50%, and there will be uncertainty in the market around that time.
According to the model, by 2046, Bitcoin's price could reach ten million dollars, but this remains a long-term forecast, with the market likely to exhibit more predictable trends.
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