Whether you can make money in the first quarter of this year depends on whether you can avoid big pitfalls in January, which is as important as last year. You must "fall through" to usher in a decent market to fill the pit. Therefore, the goal in January should be to make no losses or less losses, rather than blindly pursuing profits.
ETF fund flows and market trends
• In terms of capital flow: On January 9, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$569 million, and the Ethereum spot ETF also had a net outflow of US$159 million. At present, capital outflow is obvious, and the market has not seen large-scale inflows for the time being, and the short-term market is still relatively fragile. However, the good news is that more than 22,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges in the past week, worth about US$2.1 billion. This shows that large investors are still hoarding coins and have confidence in the long-term trend of BTC.
Technical Analysis
• Bitcoin (BTC): Last night, BTC once fell to $92,000+, and the trading volume surged. According to historical experience, the bottom area is often accompanied by high trading volume. At the same time, the average holding cost of BTC in the past two months is $96,000. This price level has become an important psychological support for the market. In the short term, BTC is likely to fluctuate in the $92,000-$96,000 range.
• Ethereum (ETH): ETH technical indicators show that the price of $3,220 corresponding to the EMA120 moving average is a good buying position. You can consider placing an order in advance and wait for a callback layout.
News Interpretation
1. Macro-positive:
• The "small non-farm" ADP employment report released last night showed that the US private sector employment growth in December last year was lower than expected, and the wage growth rate fell to the lowest level in nearly three and a half years. The slowdown in labor market growth will help ease inflationary pressures, which provides more possibilities for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
• If the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data released tomorrow night show poor employment, BTC may quickly rebound back above $100,000; conversely, if the data is strong, be wary of a price pullback to $92,000.
2. Long-term support expectations:
• The president of the Czech National Bank (CNB) said yesterday that he is considering buying Bitcoin as a diversification strategy for foreign exchange reserves. As central banks around the world gradually include BTC in their strategic reserves, the market's long-term confidence in Bitcoin has further strengthened.
Whale dynamics and bargain hunting opportunities. The recent bargain hunting actions of whales are worth paying attention to:
1. VIRTUAL: In the past 8 hours, a whale spent 900 ETH to buy 826,423 VIRTUAL, showing long-term optimism about the coin.
2. PEPE: Another whale added another $7.14 million to its position 12 hours ago, and has now accumulated a total of 791.3 billion PEPEs.
For those who are interested, you can refer to the movements of whales, and gradually build positions and follow the market makers every time VIRTUAL and PEPE fall by 5%.
Outlook
The market is mainly digesting the impact of the Fed's unsuccessful interest rate cuts in the near future, but as labor market data gradually declines and inflation cools down further, BTC's expectations for growth will continue to increase. In addition, "Trump's New Deal" and the reserve actions of many central banks around the world will become potential catalysts for BTC to break through $120,000.
In the short term, focus on the $92,000-$96,000 support range of BTC, and closely follow the release of non-farm and unemployment data. If the trend is positive, the market may usher in a new round of rebound. For retail investors, the key in January is to avoid pitfalls and patiently plan!
