Are altcoins facing a significant crash?
Recently, the crypto market has once again experienced turbulence, and veteran trader Peter Brandt's latest post has sparked intense discussion in the community. He first warned on the X platform that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000, and the vast majority of altcoins may face declines of up to 90%, while many meme coins driven by speculative sentiment may completely lose value. This sparked immediate skepticism from some retail investors, who bluntly stated that Brandt was 'too bearish'. However, in his subsequent post, he reiterated that his statement was merely a reminder for investors to be aware of the risks brought by high volatility.
Further reading
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What drew attention, aside from Brandt's warning about altcoins, is his latest interpretation of Bitcoin's trend. Although the market previously speculated that Bitcoin might fall back to the $70,000 range, Brandt has now slightly adjusted his view, believing that Bitcoin's market volatility is not only based on technical or chart patterns but is also closely related to the overall economic situation.
He admitted: 'Chart patterns will not remain consistent forever; the volatility of the blockchain industry is highly unpredictable; what may appear bearish yesterday could flip tomorrow.'
Source: X Peter Brandt stated that chart patterns will not remain consistent forever, and the volatility of the blockchain industry is highly unpredictable.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin has recently fallen from a high of $108,000 to around $94,000 (with a low of $92,500), prompting many investors to reassess whether the bull market has ended. On the other hand, the latest US employment data shows that the labor market remains strong, with a lower resignation rate and increasing job vacancies, which deepens the investment market's concerns about interest rate policies. Brandt points out that if the overall economy continues to be under pressure, Bitcoin and altcoins may face even tighter conditions in the future.
At the same time, other international issues, such as the potential trade taxes that the Trump administration may impose, could cause greater damage to the economy. A decrease in global trade could mean higher import costs, which in turn affects American consumers. American consumers may stop investing in things considered risky, such as cryptocurrencies. If people lack confidence in spending, the situation could worsen, potentially leading to further declines in the cryptocurrency market.
Polarized views: Bearish sentiment is rising, while some big names shout 'buy the dip'.
Brandt's bearish warning for the crypto market is not an isolated case. Some rapid responders pointed out: if another crisis erupts, the impact on Bitcoin will be limited, while the main disaster may fall on the highly speculative altcoins, indicating that net worth will be significantly eroded. However, there are also voices calling for optimism, like Robert Kiyosaki, the author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad'. In his latest post, he emphasized that similar to the 2008 financial crisis, while bankers reaped profits, it caused mass unemployment and foreclosures; not to mention that by 2025, the automotive market, real estate market, restaurants, retailers, and even wine sales will collapse. Moreover, worse still, the world is on the brink of war. For Kiyosaki, it is the right opportunity to 'buy gold, silver, and Bitcoin while prices are down'.
Source: X Robert Kiyosaki emphasized that the automotive market, real estate market, restaurants, retailers, and even wine sales will collapse, and the world is on the brink of war, similar to the 2008 financial crisis.
In the midst of the investment circle where the two opposing views are at a stalemate, the market is also hoping whether the overall economic policy in 2025 can loosen slightly, including the future interest rate direction of the US Federal Reserve. According to analysts' predictions, the US may reduce the pace of interest rate hikes, which could drive a new round of momentum for risk assets. In the past, the Bitcoin bull market often resonated with 'quantitative easing' policies or low-interest rates, hence some investors believe that once the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, Bitcoin and altcoins may have a chance to 'counterattack'.
Reduce positions or hold on? Investors face a test.
For general investors, facing such chaotic conditions, should they reduce positions to hedge, or continue to hold? Brandt has been criticized by some naysayers for emphasizing that 'many people will eventually be eliminated due to excessive leverage'. He reminds retail investors not to over-leverage, as once the market reverses, losses during liquidation will be extremely severe. Meanwhile, bullish advocates of 'long-term holding of Bitcoin' suggest focusing on large market cap coins or projects with real applications, and avoiding tokens that are purely speculative.
Overall, the direction of the crypto market in the future is filled with uncertainty, with policy variables and economic indicators interfering. Experts from various angles have raised arguments, whether altcoins will truly fall by 90%, and whether Bitcoin will further probe the $30,000 to $50,000 range remains to be seen. However, what is certain is that investors need to remain vigilant, assess risks, and be mindful of managing leverage and asset allocation. Regardless of whether the downward trend is as severe as analysts say, recognizing the 'extreme volatility' nature of the crypto market is always the fundamental prerequisite for a solid layout.
'He warned that altcoins could fall by 90%! Faced with criticism, the analyst stated: The crypto space is inherently difficult to predict.' This article was first published in 'Crypto City'.
