Meme trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance but also fully demonstrates the potential of cutting-edge concepts like AI Agent in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives.
The AI Agent track has recently attracted a large number of investors due to extreme volatility, and its high return potential creates a unique trading experience. MEME trading excites and indulges with 'rollercoaster-like jumps' in balance, releasing dopamine instantly, putting investors to the test psychologically and emotionally.
For investors, while enjoying the profits brought by market volatility, it is essential to be wary of the erosion of addictive psychology to avoid falling into emotional trading. Meanwhile, by deeply researching the long-term value and technical potential of projects, one can find more robust investment directions amidst volatility. The market requires both rationality and passion, rather than being dominated by a single stimulus.
Currently, MEME project filtering follows two lines: 'speculation' and value discovery. This article analyzes high-frequency 'speculative' operational methods, revealing how professional MEME creators deplete investors' energy and capital.
1 hour 15 times case
Taking the MEME token Agora as an example, investors initially judge the project to have upside potential, then engage in scalping trading for arbitrage. Multiple scalping trades quickly double the investor's principal, and this is just the beginning. After the second to last purchase, Agora surges to a 15-fold increase within 30 minutes. Due to the web interface lacking profit-taking and stop-loss features, the actual profit is far from 15-fold, but under the stimulation of the 15-fold increase, investors fall into a cycle of continued speculation and ultimately lose everything amidst the volatility.
PS: Scalping is a high-frequency trading strategy where traders capture short-term price fluctuations in stocks, futures, or other financial instruments to gain profits. The core idea of scalping is to quickly enter and exit trades using the market's short-term volatility, obtaining small profits from each trade, but accumulating gains through multiple trades.
30-second analysis leads to the 'strategy' of zeroing out principal in 10 minutes.
MEME trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, while PVP trading has evolved an organized indicator system for project filtering. In this model, the analysis and execution phases are extremely compressed, typically taking just a few minutes, especially when a project's market value has just reached N times the internal market value (approximately $68,000). At this time, N is usually less than 10, meaning the market value is below $600,000, and market competition is exceptionally fierce. However, once the project peaks and falls back, such new projects are often quickly abandoned by investors, and the hype diminishes.
1. Project Judgement and Filtering: On the new project page, sort by launch time, where projects often exhibit trading volumes 3-5 times their market values, and blue chip indices in the range of 0-1.2%. When quickly filtering on the primary page, focus on the following indicators: rapid growth in address numbers, relatively low market values (avoid projects reaching tens of millions in market value), and projects that have not seen severe pullbacks and continue to set new highs within a 1-5 minute timeframe.
2. Release Time: 30 minutes is typically a critical dividing line, as most projects begin to show signs of dumping and profit-taking about 30 minutes after launch (data sourced around 6 PM Beijing time).
3. Market Value Size: Projects with market values around $300,000 are usually more reasonable, while those reaching tens of millions could pose higher runaway risks.
4. Runaway Risk: The GMGN platform labels developers' historical project operating records, such as withdrawing liquidity, dumping, or developers running away; these labels are important indicators for evaluating project stability.
5. Blue Chip Index: As a growth indicator, the blue chip index reflects investors' purchasing power and community consensus by analyzing the situation of blue chip tokens held by investors, providing a side basis for assessing the project's health.
6. Order Book Health Indicator (X = Trading Volume / Market Value): Typically, in the early stages of a project, the X value approaches 2, then presents a parabolic trend opening downward. When the parabola peaks, trading volume hits a new high, and market value approaches a cycle high, indicating that PVP trading activity has peaked. Afterwards, trading volume decreases, market value declines, and 'smart money' begins to withdraw.
Moreover, initial judgments on tokens can be made through trading volume. For example, a single trade amount hitting a new high may indicate the entry of large funds, which is positive for the market. However, many trading platforms currently do not provide statistics on single trade amount trends or trading frequencies, relying solely on trading volume data may not be sufficient for a comprehensive market analysis.
7. Whale Traders: Typically the leading MEME community and DEX platforms, reflecting whether promotions cover mainstream communities, but such addresses usually withdraw liquidity quickly.
8. TOP10 Address Indicator: This indicator is used to analyze the top ten addresses by token holdings and their proportion of total supply. Generally, a holding ratio of less than 20% for the top ten addresses is considered healthy, indicating a more dispersed token distribution, stronger community consensus, and relatively lower selling risk.
9. Profit Expectation Formula: As the market value of tokens grows from $300,000 to $3 million, the success rate is often very low. Investors typically invest 1-10 SOL in a single project, but excessive liquidity can lead to price surges, triggering the greed of holders and prompting quick profit-taking. For example, assuming investors filter projects with a success rate of P=10%, and funds go to zero after failure, it can be calculated as 1/P=10, meaning a single project needs to achieve a 1000% return to break even. In this case, projects with market values in the hundreds of thousands of dollars are more like a probability game.
10. New Coin Priority Strategy: As the filtering and analysis framework for MEME tokens matures, creators tend to favor issuing new tokens, making it easier to manipulate related indicators. This new coin issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for 'innovation' but also increases the likelihood of attracting capital inflows in the short term.
11. Same Concept, Prefer Base: Taking the recent Percy concept promoted by Musk as an example, the performance of the Base network significantly outperforms Solana. This is because the users of the Base network are mostly seasoned DeFi users, whose purchasing power is usually 3-4 times that of Solana users. Additionally, trades on Base more frequently see whale entries, further enhancing its market performance and capital liquidity.
12. Doubling Down Strategy: Since PVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading model, users are easily influenced by emotional fluctuations during this process. The 'doubling down' strategy is a relatively scientific and psychologically lighter method. By retrieving the initial investment after doubling the profits, investors can more easily hold onto the remaining assets for the long term, thus relieving the pressure and distress brought by short-term emotional fluctuations.
13. Analysis of Pool Adjustment Motivation: In medium to large projects, investors usually pair tokens with SOL to provide liquidity in Raydium pools to achieve up to 999.99% 24-hour APR. The core essence of DeFi is to short volatility, and when paired assets exhibit one-sided trends, liquidity providers may face impermanent loss. When investors increase liquidity pool assets, it usually means they are optimistic about the corresponding asset's short-term rise, but the extent may be limited, reflecting signals of short-term consolidation. Conversely, when investors reduce pool assets, it often indicates a bearish stance on a certain asset, potentially accompanied by sell-offs or readjustments of asset exchange ratios.
14. Observing Actions of New Addresses: Regular market-making is seen as a danger signal, such as large amounts buying and selling against each other, and one can also study the trading habits of developer addresses.
By understanding the above methods and having a preliminary analysis of domestic projects, congratulations, you are about to fall into the trap of professional MEME operators, who will craft a perfect MEME on the indicators to fit your project analysis and filtering framework, then create a storyline with AI + founder interaction + hackathons, combined with the emotional ups and downs brought by high-frequency trading, leading to a rapid loss of judgment on the project and breaking trading discipline, resulting in losses. Therefore, this article serves as a 'MEME addiction prevention article.' No matter where investors learn about 'wealth codes,' information asymmetry still exists because PVP must have someone to take over, so new Web3 users should avoid getting addicted to the MEME track and gradually cultivate their value discovery ability.
For framework-based AI Agent projects, one can focus on the Forks page in the GitHub repository to see which projects have referenced Eliza's code. However, even so, it is necessary to cautiously assess the project's development progress and actual potential to avoid blindly following trends.
The last MEME impact suggestion - arrange time reasonably and take care to rest!
Summary
MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance but also fully demonstrates the potential of cutting-edge concepts like AI Agent in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives. Such high-volatility markets offer sharp investors opportunities for quick profits while also driving the exploration and development of blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI application scenarios. Investors in this environment need to continuously optimize their immediate decision-making abilities and market adaptability to find advantageous strategies in a high-risk market and apply them.
However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also carries significant risks. Severe price fluctuations can trigger emotional trading, causing investors to fall into a cycle of 'blind speculation'. The dopamine rush from short-term gains may lead to neglecting the logic of long-term value investing, and over-reliance on short-term trading often results in substantial principal losses. Especially for projects lacking solid technical support or real application scenarios, they are likely to become mere speculative tools after the hype fades, leading to significant losses for investors. Such losses not only undermine individual investment confidence but could also negatively impact the healthy development of the entire crypto industry, further exacerbating market instability.
For investors, rationality and a long-term perspective are particularly important. When participating in MEME trading, one should combine technical analysis with project value exploration, avoiding being swept away by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between risk and return can one achieve true sustainable profits in this high-volatility market.
