This year's tone is primarily focused on selling. To determine if there are any localized market trends, we should watch two points: specific policies and expectations for interest rate cuts.
Specific policies have been difficult to implement in recent months, so we should just focus on expectations for interest rate cuts. If the expectation for a rate cut in March significantly declines, the Bitcoin price will drop; conversely, if the expectation increases, the price will rise. If the probability is unclear and fluctuates around 40-60%, the market will be in a consolidation phase. In such a case, one must be prepared for consolidation, and if good profits are made, they should be taken rather than being overly ambitious.
After some data was released last night, the probability of a rate cut in March has dropped to four levels, and the probability for May is around five levels. Additionally, Bitcoin has already rebounded for eight consecutive days, so a pullback is very normal, but Bitcoin is still just consolidating. Unless the probability of a rate cut in March falls below 20%, it is unlikely to approach 91,500 or even drop below that. Moving forward, we will pay attention to the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speeches after the FOMC meeting on the 29th to judge how the market will move.
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