On the evening of January 9, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is closely watching the movements of two key figures from the U.S. Federal Reserve (referred to as the "Fed"). At 22:00 that evening, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Harker, who has a vote in the 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), will deliver a speech at an event regarding the economic outlook for 2025.
Shortly after, just five minutes later, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Collins, who also has a vote in the 2025 FOMC, articulated his views on the economic outlook. According to Jinshi Data, the significance of both speeches reached three and a half stars, indicating that they could have a significant impact on the market.
In the past year, the Fed's monetary policy has been a key factor affecting the cryptocurrency market. In 2024, the Fed implemented three consecutive rate cuts, adjusting the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%-4.50%.
However, the interest rate forecast dot plot released in December 2024 showed that the expected number of rate cuts for 2025 was revised down from four to two, while the median interest rate forecast was also raised from 3.4% in September to 3.9%. This change undoubtedly adds a layer of uncertainty to market expectations for rate cuts.
Currently, the market is extremely sensitive to the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy. The speeches of Harker and Collins may release key signals regarding future interest rate adjustments and economic stimulus measures. If their remarks lean hawkish, such as expressing concerns about inflation or suggesting that the pace of rate cuts may slow, it could trigger panic selling in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a significant drop in the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, if their stance leans dovish, such as emphasizing the downside risks to economic growth or expressing support for further rate cuts, it could enhance market confidence and drive cryptocurrency prices up.
Therefore, cryptocurrency investors are in a critical period, needing to closely monitor the content of the two presidents' speeches and market reactions, conduct rational analysis, and timely adjust investment strategies based on market dynamics to seize opportunities and evade risks amid market fluctuations.