Analysis of trading cash flow on Binance shows a significant change in Bitcoin's price, marking a potential turning point.
Traditionally, when the 14-day simple moving average (SMA14) for net cash flow turns positive, it often signals upcoming selling pressure, leading to short-term price adjustments.
Notably, this pattern reversed when the SMA14 turned negative on January 6, 2025. This indicates a decrease in selling pressure and an increase in buying activity.
This change is quantified by the net cash flow of Binance reaching -5,407, while the SMA14 also decreased to -483.
These figures indicate stronger buying sentiment among investors on this platform. It may signal a positive trend for Bitcoin's price in the near future.
The changes in this net cash flow data are an important indicator of market sentiment and may foreshadow significant price fluctuations.
With the recent negative crossover in the SMA14, Bitcoin's outlook could be optimistic. The recent market correction may be ending, and a bullish phase could be emerging.
This scenario is supported by a significant increase in investor interest. The same is reflected in the net buying trend on Binance, indicating optimistic market sentiment ahead.
Bitcoin Price: Profit of BTC Addresses
Bitcoin's price started the new year strong. It regained the $100,000 mark in the first week of January, expected to be a bullish year.
The money inflow/outflow indicator shows a significant green cluster up to the price of $101,710.79. This means that many addresses are profitable up to this level.
Additionally, the market is showing increasing pressure as addresses buying at higher prices remain unprofitable, marked by the red area expanding up to $106,839.06.
This distribution indicates that although Bitcoin's price has performed well, there is still significant resistance ahead.
The densely packed profitable address group could serve as a strong support base if prices decline. However, the presence of a large number of addresses still at a loss at higher levels may limit Bitcoin's upward momentum.
This will make it difficult to sustain bullish runs without additional positive triggers. About 380,000 addresses are still at a loss, accounting for less than 1% of total Bitcoin holders.
This small percentage indicates that the market correction may be nearing its end. Most holders are likely to realize potential profits if Bitcoin can maintain an upward trajectory and break through current resistance levels.
Supply of long-term holders
The volatility between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin shows a notable shift in supply patterns.
Initially, when the price of Bitcoin surged to $100,000, selling activity increased significantly, primarily among short-term holders (STH).
This selling peak is reflected through a significant shift of coins from the STH group to the LTH group, a typical behavior when traders capitalize on high prices.
In the next phase, LTH supply gradually increased. This trend suggests that coins held by STH for under 155 days are beginning to age into LTH, which traditionally holds for much longer.
The shift towards greater LTH supply suggests that selling pressure at high prices will decrease as more holders adopt a long-term investment mindset.
This transition may indicate that prices will stabilize at higher levels if the coin flow trend continues towards LTH.
Traditionally, an increase in long-term holder (LTH) supply correlates with reduced market volatility and stronger price support levels, implying that a significant sell-off may have subsided at this time.
Therefore, if this increase in LTH supply is confirmed in the coming days, it is likely to signal that the LTH selling phase has ended, creating a more bullish trend for Bitcoin's near future.
