Author | BowTied Bull
Compilation | Vernacular Blockchain
With the arrival of 2025, it is customary for us to review the past and look forward to the future at the turn of the old and the new.
Looking back at the past time of the cryptocurrency industry, we can find an interesting phenomenon, that is, there will be an "altcoin peak season" every 4 years. During this period, you will find that all tokens are rising. It is likely that you will listen to Say that your alcoholic uncle also bought some animal coins and made a lot of money, and even completed the operation while drunk.
By 2025, it can be said that the real peak season of altcoins has not yet fully arrived. Although no one can predict how crazy the altcoin peak season will be this time, here I would like to remind everyone that the trend of altcoin market generally gets out of control quickly and may also end suddenly. Once it crashes, the drop may not be just -99.99%, it may even be a complete collapse.
However, before that, everyone was immersed in the atmosphere of various prosperous entertainments. So, let's take a moment to review the past altcoin seasons to see how they developed and whether we can draw some valuable lessons from them.
2012-2013 Altcoin Season: Early enthusiastic investors, with a peak market cap reaching $15 billion.
We know that those blindly following trends in the current market are likely to appear again. This situation occurred in 2013, and the trend became very interesting.
During the 'altcoin season' in 2013, Bitcoin was still in its early development stage, with a total market value of only about $1 billion, and a typical whale transaction was around $100,000. At that time, Mt. Gox was still operational, and most investors were those who frequently participated in Magic: The Gathering trading card events (which is also the background for the Mt. Gox incident).
At that time, people proposed ideas to improve Bitcoin's transaction speed, believing that reducing block time could speed up transactions, which was considered a far-reaching innovation at that time.
Litecoin: Still exists to this day, and the whole idea (proposed by Charlie Lee) was to reduce block time from Bitcoin's 10 minutes to 2.5 minutes.
The price of Litecoin rose from about 10 cents to $48, an increase of approximately 47,900%. It saw another significant surge in 2017, after which Charlie Lee sold all his holdings at the top, stating 'Without him, the Bitcoin network is doing just fine' (everyone knows what it means when the founder sells 100% of their holdings).
Namecoin: This is a fork coin of Bitcoin aimed at creating a decentralized network domain name (similar to the concept expanded by ENS through '.eth'). Its price once surged to about $13 but quickly fell to a low. From the lowest point to the highest point, its price increased by about 30 times. In fact, it still exists, and the current trading price is close to $1.
Peercoin (PPC): This is one of the earliest proof-of-stake tokens (this mechanism is now used to secure ETH), experiencing two major surges. The first was in 2013, and the other was in 2017 during the ETH ICO frenzy. Its price once surged to about $7, an increase of 60-70 times. Naturally, it did not gain mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0.42. (However, the conclusion that one might draw is that, apart from pure Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect or LUNA, nothing else in the current market will truly go to zero.)
Frenzy: Bitcoin eventually reached $1,200, and these cryptocurrencies surged due to increased interest from people. Any project posting on BitcoinTalk could quickly surge based on speculation. Today, the closest situation to this might be a Memecoin promoted by a celebrity or a Memecoin named after a celebrity.
Mt. Gox Collapse: When Mt. Gox collapsed, the party ended. This collapse was due to a major hacking incident, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin's price, approximately 85-90% (depending on how you view the bottom), while various altcoins fell over 99%.
2017 Altcoin Season: The ICO frenzy and the rise of Ethereum, with a peak market cap reaching $800 billion.
Subsequently, many interesting events occurred during the bear market. Ethereum was born as a smart contract platform with the purpose of creating programmable money. This was a true innovation, as it not only allowed people to transfer tokens but also created smart contracts, fundamentally changing the entire game.
Like many things in the cryptocurrency realm, Ethereum also comes with some common risks. Ethereum's DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) was hacked, resulting in losses exceeding $100 million, ultimately leading to a blockchain fork that created ETH and ETC chains. To this day, some believe that the fork decision at that time was a mistake, but we do not intend to discuss this today, only to briefly revisit this history.
By around 2016, people realized that new tokens could be issued on the Ethereum blockchain, leading to the rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). In ICOs, project teams directly sold tokens to investors. In 2017, the ICO frenzy officially erupted, with many scams you could think of emerging at that time.
Ether (ETH): The issuance of these tokens requires ETH, which drove the price of ETH to soar rapidly from about $8 to $1,400 in January 2018, a return that was almost unimaginable at that time. Currently, ETH is trading at around $3,650.
Ripple (XRP): Ripple is still seen as the 'banking coin,' with the theory that Ripple will replace SWIFT (the international payment clearing system) and become the de facto financial standard. Although Ripple is centralized (but most people do not mind), it still attracts millions of funds. The price of Ripple surged from about 1 cent to $3.80, currently trading at $2.41.
Strangely, the investor community of Ripple is still primarily retail. In the recent surge, you can see a similar phenomenon—Ripple dominated discussions on TikTok, attracting a lot of discussion, with even questions like 'What if its market cap reaches the level of Bitcoin?'
Litecoin: As previously mentioned, Litecoin saw another surge, with prices soaring to $360. Although Charlie Lee sold all his Litecoins, it still spiked again to $384 in 2021!
EOS: EOS raised $4 billion through ICO, claiming to be the 'Ethereum killer.' Its price once surged to $22, but it has never reached new highs since then.
NEO: Another project claiming to be an 'Ethereum killer,' known as 'China's Ethereum,' saw its price rise from $0.20 to $200, achieving a 1,000x return.
Bitcoin Cash: Roger Ver was a well-known figure in the Bitcoin community, participating in the big block debate and supporting Bitcoin Cash. In August 2017, at block 478,559, users holding 1 Bitcoin received 1 Bitcoin Cash. Due to Roger Ver's support, the price of Bitcoin Cash once surged to about $3,800, but then gradually faded from people's view.
Other Ethereum Killers: During this time, other tokens were also marketed as 'Ethereum Killers' (such as ADA, Tron, etc.). If a token published a 'white paper', it seemed to drive its price to realize a 10x or 100x surge. Other tokens, such as Filecoin and Tezos, also launched during this period.
Yield scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager are the first yield scams, you are mistaken! In fact, the first large-scale yield Ponzi scheme was Bitconnect, causing many people to lose millions of dollars.
Regulatory intervention: Just like the cycle in 2021, the intervention of regulators and the outbreak of Ponzi schemes once again destroyed the entire industry. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began investigating projects like EOS, and the market experienced a solid 85% retracement, with Bitcoin's price dropping to about $3,500 by March 2020.
During that period, most tokens were just scams, so the altcoin market experienced almost a 99.999999% crash. At that time, if your token appeared in a Super Bowl ad, its price might instantly increase fivefold. For example, VIBE is a typical case.
The price of VIBE once surged from $0.04 to over $2, but its total market value eventually dropped to just $262.
2021 Altcoin Season: DeFi, NFTs, and Memecoins, with a peak market cap reaching $3 trillion.
In 2021, due to well-known reasons, everyone was working from home, staring at their computers and phones all day. The U.S. government printed $10 trillion, which was just the U.S. government's expenditure.
DeFi projects propelled liquidity mining, NFTs brought JPEGs into the mainstream (selling for millions), and the valuations of Memecoins reached absurd levels. Bitcoin broke through $69,000, ETH reached $4,800, and the total cryptocurrency market cap surpassed $3 trillion in November 2021.
Dogecoin (DOGE): Initially just a joke, but with Musk's interest in Dogecoin, its price began to rise parabolically, becoming a hot topic on the forum platform Reddit. Today, it has almost become Musk's exclusive meme coin. The price surged from about 0.5 cents to 74 cents, an increase of about 15,000%.
Solana: Marketed as the next 'Ethereum killer,' it attracted a lot of attention with its fast transaction speeds and low fees. All of this was mainly promoted by SBF (who is now in prison). The price surged from $1 to about $260, an increase of 26,000%.
Shiba Inu (SHIB): A meme coin that mimicked Dogecoin, creating a large number of millionaires. If looking from an almost zero market cap, it achieved a 500,000% increase.
DeFi tokens: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI, etc. saw price increases ranging from 10x to 50x, and the total locked value (TVL) of decentralized finance (DeFi) exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars. Nowadays, many DeFi projects have a TVL even higher than back then!
NFTs:
CryptoPunks: Sold for millions, the cheapest CryptoPunk costs over 100 ETH.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, with minimum prices reaching incredible levels.
Airdrop frenzy: For some old users of certain projects, simply having a $100 .eth domain name could earn them a $40,000 airdrop. You could even earn 2% in a day or a week through cross-chain bridging (by completing certain operations). NFT projects like BAYC also airdropped a large number of other high-valued NFTs, with the total amount of the airdrop reaching billions of dollars.
More crazily... almost all tokens were rising, with tokens like SAFEMOON being endorsed by people like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities like Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton were also endorsing various projects. Even the already defunct FTX had spent money to buy the naming rights for the Miami Heat.
Ponzi schemes: A large number of Ponzi schemes emerged. Although some people accuse us of having been involved with these schemes, we actually did not participate. Fortunately, many people successfully avoided significant losses. Investing in these products and entrusting your assets to others has never been a wise move.
Death Spiral: As liquidity began to dry up (the funding aid previously provided to these projects disappeared), we witnessed the collapse of the aforementioned Ponzi schemes. In addition, FTX collapsed due to the theft of user funds, followed by further regulatory actions from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Various large-scale scams and rug pulls ultimately led to a strict regulatory period for the crypto industry.
04. Key Lessons
1) Take profits in a timely manner: The market changes rapidly, and you are likely to feel greedy. If you find yourself saying, 'I wish I could buy 2x of a certain token,' then what you should probably do is sell half of your position and contentedly take profits. Selling Bitcoin, Ether, or stablecoins doesn't matter; the key is not to be greedy.
2) The hype cycle will repeat: Each round of altcoin season has a narrative theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or Memecoins. If you find a theme, it's best to stick with it, as the knowledge you accumulate in that area often quickly disappears by the end of the cycle. Instead of jumping around, focus on a specific area and reap the ultimate victory.
3) Risk management is crucial: The benefits can be significant, but everyone's situation is different. You are not the same as me, and I am not the same as my neighbor. Create a suitable plan for yourself and stick to it; do not constantly adjust your goals just because someone with $100,000 says '10 million is not enough to retire.'
4) Survivors will thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ether dominate in every cycle. If a project has existed for this long, its risk of going to zero is relatively low. If Solana can find practical applications beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it might also reach this level.
Have we learned anything from Ponzi schemes? Actually, no. From what we've seen, people still do not understand the concept of 'Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins.' You can buy crypto stocks or other leveraged crypto assets on online platforms, but understand that if you invest in these stocks or crypto ETFs, you do not actually own any cryptocurrency. You will also never know how these companies or projects will handle the assets you put in.
In a bull market, we often face criticism for not participating in the latest Memecoin hype. While these speculative behaviors may seem hot right now, if you observe closely, you'll find that those who stick to their strategies and remain calm have gradually begun to accumulate.
In contrast, those speculators who only think about getting rich quickly through '10x returns' may attract market attention in the short term, but their capital and strategies can never compare to those anonymous whales who continuously invest steadily every month to accumulate wealth. These whales usually have a more solid financial foundation and clearer long-term planning. Ultimately, the performance and data of the market will prove what kind of strategy is the key to success.
Finally, I wish everyone good luck in 2025.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with the authorization of partner PANews, original link | Source: Block客)
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the views or positions of Block客. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Block客 will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses resulting from investor transactions.
"What insights do we gain from reviewing the performance of altcoins in previous bull markets?" This article was first published on (Block客).
