Deep Tide TechFlow News, on January 8, according to CoinDesk, the volatility index of the U.S. Treasury market, MOVE (Merrill Option Volatility Expectations) index, has continued to rise since bottoming out at 82 points in mid-December, reaching 102.78 points on January 8, indicating a key shift in market dynamics. As the world's second-largest financial market, increased volatility in the Treasury market often signals a tightening financial environment, potentially triggering risk-averse sentiment across various financial markets.
Latest data shows that manufacturing performance exceeded expectations, suggesting strong economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures, driving U.S. Treasury yields higher across the board. Among them, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.92% (the highest since November 23), and the 10-year yield rose to 4.68% (the highest level since May).
The market has observed that both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index currently exhibit a 'head and shoulders' pattern, which aligns with the trend of the MOVE index. Since Trump won the election on November 5, the MOVE index had dropped significantly, leading to a broad rally in risk assets. However, this upward momentum began to weaken when the MOVE index bottomed out in mid-December. On January 8, Bitcoin fell 5% to $96,900, and the S&P 500 declined over 1%. Analysts point out that the bond market currently dominates broader market trends, making it difficult for risk assets to regain upward momentum until the Treasury market stabilizes.

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