The counterfeit and meme have bled profusely today, and my positions have also pulled back quite a bit. Although it looks a bit like a head and shoulders pattern, this round is different and won't replicate the previous cycle theories. It's more likely that BTC will alternate between pullbacks and rebounds, making it hard to have that continuous downward feeling like in earlier bear markets.
Memes are also like this. As a segment that can bring crypto into the mainstream, there will be waves of hotspots to play with. After this round of pullback, we need to lay low and wait for some hotspot opportunities.
In the future, impressive alpha is unlikely to come out of CEX. Binance has now become a place for offloading, and the wealth effect is gone, so the market share will gradually be divided and eroded.
In the future, impressive alpha will come from on-chain. These asset classes may not necessarily be pure memes; they could also be application-based. Even if they don't follow the meme model, they will adopt meme-like issuing methods. For instance, recently, assets with a market cap above 1B such as $virtual (AI agent launchpad), $buzz (DeFi agents), and $hype (L1+perp dex) are not just pure meme/IP narratives. They all have certain application scenarios but have adopted more native issuance methods, moving from on-chain to CEX.
