The tone of this year is mainly selling. To judge whether there is a local market, we need to look at two points: special policies and interest rate cut expectations.

Special policies are not easy to implement in the first few months, so just keep an eye on the interest rate cut expectations. If the interest rate cut expectations in March are greatly reduced, the big cake cottage will fall; vice versa. If the probability is vague, for example, it hovers between 40-60%, then the market is volatile. If there is volatility, you must be aware of volatility. If you make a good profit, you must pocket it, and you can't be sloppy.

After some data came out last night, the probability of a rate cut in March was reduced to 4 levels, and the probability of a rate cut in May was around 5 levels. In addition, the big cake has rebounded for 8 consecutive days, so it is very normal to fall back, but the big cake is still just volatile. Unless the probability of a rate cut in March falls below 20%, it is possible to approach 91,500 or even fall below. Later, we will pay attention to the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speech after the fomc meeting on the 29th to judge how the market will go.

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