2025/1/8 Accurate Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. Last night a black swan came and brought the crypto market down. Are we heading into a bear market?

The U.S. job vacancy data released last night greatly exceeded expectations, indicating that companies have a high demand for hiring and the labor market has not cooled down yet.

As a result, the market has lowered expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and the current outlook is quite pessimistic: no interest rate cuts before July next year is what has brought the crypto market down.

Binance had the largest trading volume in 2 months over the last 4 hours, exceeding 1.2 billion USD, significantly higher than the trading volume when it dropped to $91,000 two weeks ago.

When we are unsure of the direction, we can only study on-chain data more and see how big capital is operating.

From the on-chain data, after yesterday's sharp decline:

(1) BTC flowed out of exchanges, mainly 7,000 from Coinbase, indicating that large holders are still bottom-fishing.

(2) Stablecoins did not flow out and remained strong.

With such a large trading volume, combined with on-chain data, it feels like the drop should be about over.

Next, we will look at Friday's non-farm payrolls and employment rate; if it’s good news (40% probability), it will quickly rebound to $100,000.

If it’s bad news (60%), it may drop to $95,000 and then rebound close to the time before and after Trump took office, returning to high points.

When it's time to mine, don't hold heavy positions. The community will ride the waves with you!