Author: shaofaye123, Foresight News
Just entering 2025, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $100,000 mark, and the market seems to be gradually warming up amidst fluctuations.
Around 10 PM on January 6, the price of BTC rose and broke through $100,000, currently hovering around $102,000. ETH also quickly rebounded and broke through $3,600. Good news continues to flow, with BTC recording consecutive daily gains for 7 days, making the market seem gradually optimistic. What is happening in the market?
BTC market data is favorable
Bitcoin spot ETF data is one of the important reference indicators for observing the inflow of off-exchange funds. Looking back at December, according to SoSoValue data, there was continuous positive inflow in the first half of the month, while performance in the second half was unsatisfactory. Since entering January, Bitcoin spot ETFs have once again achieved net inflow, with total net assets reaching $111.46 billion. The ETF net asset ratio (market value compared to total Bitcoin market value) has reached 5.72%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion.
Various institutions are increasing their BTC holdings
On January 3, MicroStrategy announced that it would raise $2 billion in the first quarter through the issuance of preferred shares to purchase more BTC. This has laid the foundation for increased BTC buying. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, "According to HODL15Capital statistics, 11 publicly traded companies have bought more Bitcoin since last Monday. In 2025, a large number of companies will adopt the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement."
MicroStrategy has now purchased Bitcoin for nine consecutive weeks. On January 6, it increased its holdings by 1,070 BTC for approximately $101 million, with an average price of $94,004. Its current holdings have reached 447,470 BTC, with a total holding value of about $44.3 billion.
According to Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, it plans to continue increasing its Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet in 2025, with current holdings of about 44,000 BTC valued at over $4 billion. US-listed company KULR has increased its holdings by 213.43 BTC, reaching a current holding of 430.61 BTC.
Japanese company Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by 2025 to expand its influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.
According to Cointelegraph, El Salvador has also increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the new year, bringing its total holdings to 6,009 BTC, valued at approximately $595 million. Major institutions worldwide are increasingly adding BTC, with buying pressure on BTC continuing to rise.
Trump-themed Memecoins have seen significant gains, and the altcoin sector continues to warm up.
Since Trump's successful election in early November, the market has experienced a continuous rise for a month. In the early morning of January 7, the US Congress officially confirmed Trump's election as president, with his inauguration approaching, related cryptocurrency projects and tokens are once again attracting attention.
Trump-themed Memecoin TRUMP has risen for three consecutive days since January 4, with an increase of over 80%; MAGA, TRUMPCOIN, and other Memecoins have also seen nearly 100% increases, although they experienced some pullback yesterday. However, its family projects, including LINK, AAVE, ENA, COW, and others, have not seen significant rises.
Trump's crypto-friendly attitude is a major factor contributing to the recent optimism in the market. However, according to Reuters, Angeles Investments CIO Michael Rosen stated that Trump's inauguration may also bring some surprises to the market, as he is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policies.
Currently, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has entered a relatively optimistic state, and the altcoin sector continues to rise. According to Alternative.me data, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has gradually risen above 70 since January, with today’s index reaching 78, indicating the market has shifted to an "extreme greed state."
In contrast to Bitcoin's meteoric rise, the altcoin sector has shown mixed results. In the 24-hour surge, the public chain sector SOL broke through 220 USDT again, achieving an increase, while AVAX realized about a 6% increase; other public chains have stagnated, SUI has fallen back to 5 USDT after reaching a new high, and TON is oscillating around 5.7 USDT.
The Ethereum ecosystem, including DeFi, re-staking, L2, stablecoins, and other sectors, has also experienced short-term corrections. EIGEN has shown a slight decline after three consecutive days of increases, LDO has dropped about 3%, and ENA has seen a significant correction of around 10%. OP, ARB, and others have also shown slight declines after five consecutive days of gains.
The CES technology spring gala is being held, and AI concepts are receiving new benefits.
The "Tech Spring Gala" CES 2025 (Consumer Electronics Show) will be held from January 7 to January 11 in Las Vegas, USA. During the event, tech giants such as NVIDIA, AMD, Toyota, and Samsung will all showcase their latest products and strategic plans for consumers.
Against this backdrop, US stocks saw a positive trend on January 6, with the Dow rising over 380 points at its peak, the Nasdaq rising 2% before pulling back, and the chip index rising over 4%. The 'seven tech sisters' experienced broad gains, with Meta rising 4.23%, NVIDIA up 3.43%, Google A up 2.65%, Amazon up 1.53%, Microsoft up 1.06%, Apple up 0.67%, and Tesla up 0.15%.
With NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang set to deliver a keynote speech on January 7, NVIDIA's stock price has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a new high. According to market news, Huang may officially announce the new generation of GeForce RTX50 series graphics cards during the speech, including RTX5090, 5080, and 5060.
In the cryptocurrency market, AI application coins have risen broadly, and AI Memecoins continue to gain momentum. WLD has seen a 24-hour increase of over 10%, RENDER has increased by 8%, and IOTA has risen by 6%. In the past 24 hours, apart from slight declines in VIRTUAL, ZEREBRO, FARTCOIN, and others, the rest have all recorded gains. SWARMS is approaching a market value of $500 million, achieving over 80% growth. AI16Z is at 2.25 USDT, with an increase of over 25%. GRIFFAIN, ARC, and others have all risen by over 20%, and AIXBT has also rebounded to above 0.55 USDT.
How analysts view this
In early February 2024, 10X Research founder and research director Markus Thielen stated that "Bitcoin tends to rise by 11% around the Lunar New Year." Over the past 9 years, traders who bought Bitcoin 3 days before the Lunar New Year and sold it 10 days after have seen good returns. The 2025 Spring Festival falls on January 29, which is earlier than previous years, making the market performance worth looking forward to.
John Glover, chief investment officer of Ledn, stated that Bitcoin may drop to $89,000 before rebounding, reaching $125,000 by the end of the first quarter, and potentially hitting $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year.
Bitfinex released a report stating that "we see that the market remains strong. Although a deeper correction may occur in the first quarter of 2025, the bullish sentiment among miners and the overall tightening of supply indicate that Bitcoin has good upward potential in the medium term. The overall selling pressure from miners, long-term holders, and other groups has significantly eased. The supply entering circulation in the market has decreased, alleviating the impact of the recent correction."
Bernstein analysts released ten predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, stating that "the cryptocurrency industry will enter the 'infinite era,' with a Bitcoin price target of $200,000 by 2025, the stablecoin market cap exceeding $50 billion, and net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeding $70 billion, while the integration of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence will further deepen."
However, some analysts have expressed concerns about the market.
QCP indicates that "a large-scale short squeeze is not expected in the short term; any related catalysts from Trump may not appear until after the inauguration on January 20."
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated in his latest blog (Sasa) that he believes the cryptocurrency market will peak in mid-March and then experience a significant correction. He suggests that investors should sell in the later part of the first quarter and wait for liquidity conditions to improve in the third quarter.
