Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Wenser
At the beginning of the new year 2025, the market seems to have opened a gradual price repair amid fluctuations and declines.
Around 10 a.m. this morning, the BTC price briefly rose above $99,000, currently reporting around $98,800; ETH has also rebounded from around $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL has similarly risen from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As Trump's inauguration date approaches, market sentiment is gradually warming. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize recent market viewpoints in this article for readers' reference.
Buying power continues: buying funds at the national, institutional, and corporate levels are long-term.
The price rebound is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying power. After experiencing the "Christmas shock", the buying power for the new year still seems to be long-term and increasingly robust.
Data: The historical cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $35.909 billion.
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $111.46 billion, with the ETF net asset ratio (the market value compared to Bitcoin's total market value) reaching 5.72%, and the historical cumulative net inflow reaching $35.91 billion; the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $13.03 billion, with an ETF net asset rate (the market value compared to Ethereum's total market value) of 3%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $2.64 billion.
BTC spot ETF data.
ETH spot ETF data.
In addition, institutional reports also show confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025.
Steno Research: Expects net inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to reach $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively by 2025; BTC to rise to a minimum of $150,000.
Steno Research recently released a report stating that their bullish predictions for BTC and ETH prices reflect "an unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment marked by declining interest rates and improved liquidity, and historically strong performance after Bitcoin halving."
He also stated, "Moreover, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and the substantial inflow of funds into U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has further driven this trend."
Steno expects net inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs to be $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively in 2025. Additionally, the report states that by 2025, DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion, far surpassing the previous high of around $180 billion in 2021.
Previously, Steno Research stated in a report that it expects Bitcoin's price to rise from about $94,000 to a minimum of $150,000 in 2025, while ETH's price is expected to grow more than double, rising from $3,400 to at least $8,000. This means that the ETH/BTC exchange rate will increase from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to the price trends of previous cycles, with altcoins becoming the focus.
El Salvador has added 5 BTC since the new year, currently holding about 6,009 coins.
According to on-chain data today, since the new year, El Salvador has added 5 BTC, bringing its total holdings to about 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: In 2025, we will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings, currently holding over 40,000 coins.
According to MARA Digital's CEO, in 2025, they will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings on their balance sheet.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, worth over $4 billion.
On Deribit, BTC block options were bought for a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10, totaling 150 BTC.
According to Lin Chen, head of APAC business at Deribit, today's largest BTC block option was: a user paid $559,000 to purchase a $97,000 call option expiring on January 10 (this Friday), totaling 150 BTC.
Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price will reach $200,000 by 2025; MicroStrategy will buy more BTC.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin's price will double; he stated in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Furthermore, he expects institutional investment in Bitcoin to continue at or above the pace of 2024 next year. The bank noted that since the beginning of this year, institutional purchases of Bitcoin have reached 683,000 coins, primarily through the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF and the effective alternative MicroStrategy. Geoffrey Kendrick stated that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases in 2025 should reach or exceed the amounts purchased in 2024. He also noted that due to the incoming Trump administration's anticipated reforms of regulations regarding traditional finance companies' investments in digital currencies, pension funds should start including Bitcoin in their portfolios through the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF from next year. Kendrick pointed out: "Even a small allocation from the $40 trillion U.S. retirement funds would significantly boost Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin is adopted more quickly by U.S. retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWF), or potential U.S. strategic reserve funds, we will be even more optimistic."
Furthermore, major listed companies are still systematically carrying out their "Bitcoin accumulation plans."
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have increased its BTC holdings.
Blockstream founder Adam Back stated: "I believe MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchases but must announce it to the market through an 8-K filing before or after regular trading hours on the stock market."
Previously, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released information related to Bitcoin Tracker for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: In the past week, 11 listed companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated: "According to HODL15Capital's statistics, since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, many companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement."
Metaplanet plans to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins by 2025.
As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the sweetness of the "Bitcoin reserve plan", Metaplanet's buying power will continue.
The company's CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that this year's goal is to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins by utilizing its "most value-added capital market tools", aiming to promote the adoption of Bitcoin in Japan and globally, and to "expand Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem."
Gerovich stated: "We are not just creating a company; we are driving a movement."
Compared to the continuously growing buying power, the "selling pressure" has also eased to a considerable extent as we enter 2025.
Selling pressure has eased: both inflows to exchanges and outflows from miners have decreased.
As a major source of selling pressure, inflows to exchanges and outflows from miners have historically been seen as reliable indicators, and recently have seen significant declines.
Since November 2024, BTC inflows to exchanges and miner outflows have significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure.
Since November 2024, the inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and the outflow of miners (BTC sent to exchanges by miners) has significantly decreased, indicating reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC inflow to exchanges peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, following about two months of highly active inflow activities. In December 2024, BTC inflows to exchanges declined but remained quite considerable, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges daily fluctuating between 11,000 and 79,000.
The decrease in inflows to exchanges accompanies a decrease in outflows from miners, indicating reduced selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often sell BTC holdings to cover operational costs. Since the historic price surge of Bitcoin following Trump's election in November last year, miner outflows have been declining.
CryptoQuant data shows that the outflow peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, with Bitcoin prices reaching around $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, on January 2 sent 5,748 BTC, and on January 3 sent 2,133 BTC.
The macro and micro prediction game: cautious optimists versus highly optimistic voices.
As for macro predictions for the cryptocurrency market and personal views at the micro level, there seems to be a coexistence of cautious optimism and high optimism. Some traders believe in "timely profit-taking and phase exit."
Greeks.live: European and American users are gradually returning from vacation, and market enthusiasm is rising.
On January 3, Adam from Greeks.live stated: "20,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.69, and the maximum pain point at $97,000, nominal value $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.81, and the maximum pain point at $3,400, nominal value $710 million. Today is the first weekly options expiration of 2025, with a total of $2.6 billion in options expiring. European and American users are gradually returning from vacation, and overall market enthusiasm is rising. However, this week's theme remains adjustment, with clear market differentiation; currently, no sustained hotspots have emerged.
Later this month, Trump is set to officially take office as the new president of the U.S., and the entire market is very optimistic about 2025. However, the recent significant pullback in U.S. stocks has brought considerable uncertainty to the market, and it is highly likely that the interest rate meeting this month will maintain the current rates without cuts, leaving the market without more positive news in the short term.
U.S. investment bank's perspective: Expects BTC market capitalization to reach a quarter of gold's by the end of this year, with BTC prices breaking through $220,000.
U.S. investment bank HC Wainwright expects Bitcoin's price to reach $225,000 by the end of 2025, meaning Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $4.5 trillion, about 25% of gold's market capitalization.
Finance professor: Supportive regulation in the U.S. will boost BTC; reaching a price of $200,000 is entirely possible.
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex in the UK, believes that a $200,000 Bitcoin is possible. Carol Alexander pointed out, "I am more optimistic about 2025 than ever before," adding that Bitcoin's price "could easily reach $200,000, but there are no signs that volatility will decrease." Alexander clarified that she herself does not own any Bitcoin. "By next summer, I expect its trading price to fluctuate around $150,000, plus or minus $50,000." Supportive regulation in the U.S. will boost Bitcoin, however, the lack of regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges will continue to lead to volatility, as high-leverage trading will cause price swings.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good track record in predicting Bitcoin prices; last year she predicted Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, which indeed happened.
Mining industry workers: Bitcoin may peak at $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, but with occasional sharp pullbacks.
Chief economist of cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM) Youwei Yang predicts that Bitcoin's price will be between $180,000 and $190,000 in 2025, but he remains cautious, believing that prices may experience pullbacks.
He pointed out: "Bitcoin may experience significant upward momentum and occasional sharp pullbacks in 2025. During market shocking moments, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain upward. Based on these dynamics, Bitcoin is predicted to reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which aligns with historical cycle patterns and the growing trend of mainstream institutions investing in cryptocurrencies."
Ledn's Chief Investment Officer: Predicts BTC will hit $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year.
Ledn's Chief Investment Officer John Glover stated that Bitcoin may pull back to $89,000 and then rebound, reaching $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
Glover stated that since then, Bitcoin may pull back to $100,000 again, and then surge to $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026. This prediction is more conservative than the $180,000 and $200,000 predictions by asset management companies VanEck and Bitwise.
Analysts expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound trend, possibly rising to $105,000 in January.
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts stated, "We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors seek to deploy capital across a variety of asset classes. We predict that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000."
On January 20, the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may become an important catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new U.S. government include more friendly cryptocurrency regulatory policies and improved U.S. economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a price surge in cryptocurrencies. "We expect the new U.S. government to bring more clarity to cryptocurrency policy, but we do not think that the inauguration itself will be a significant price-increasing event; rather, it will lay the groundwork for a less obstructed path for cryptocurrencies in the U.S."
Placeholder partner: Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL all look strong.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske stated: "Regardless of the time frame, BTC, ETH, and SOL all look strong and will rise again soon."
Additionally, it was also added that similar to previous trends, the Meme coins in recent weeks have also become a good indicator of increased risk appetite.
Founder of 1confirmation: Expects countries to attempt to adopt Microstrategy's strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings.
Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated that it is likely that countries will soon compete to attempt to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy.
- Issue government bonds with different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.).
- Use bonds to purchase cryptocurrency.
- Repay loans on time according to the loan term.
At the same time, he pointed out that the question is no longer whether countries will do this, but rather what kind of cryptocurrencies they will purchase, likely starting with BTC, but the next will be ETH, and any sufficiently decentralized currency could participate, as the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Negative bearishness vs. profit-taking: mature views from renowned research institutions and well-known traders.
Compared to the optimistic view of BTC, the market views on ETH and altcoins are relatively rational; here we showcase some representative opinions.
10x Research: Expects ETH's performance in 2025 to lag behind BTC again and is not optimistic about the Pectra upgrade.
Recently, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated in a market report: "While we cannot rule out the possibility of new catalysts, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve meaningful rebounds in 2025. Although we understand Ethereum's volatility, we believe it remains a poor mid-term investment and expect ETH's performance in 2025 to lag behind BTC again. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: 'avoid.'"
Thielen stated that one of the most noteworthy indicators to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he pointed out that the one-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, decreasing by about 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen noted that the increase in unstaking seems "logical"; he believes Ethereum lacks "real demand" outside of staking.
He also mentioned that the Ethereum Duncan upgrade in March last year (which reduced the network's gas fees and allowed it to handle more transactions) was "six months late," missing the peak of the Meme coin surge, leading the market to "turn to" the "more cost-effective" alternative Solana. He is also skeptical about the upcoming Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025, stating, "Out of 19 upgrades to date, only two have had a noticeable positive effect on ETH prices, and those upgrades occurred during Bitcoin's bull market." He added, "The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have largely failed, bringing little overall value."
Senior trader: Trump's inauguration may become a key trigger for the resurgence of bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
Senior cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently stated that the cryptocurrency market may not see significant volatility before President Trump is inaugurated on January 20. He speculated that this political event could be a key trigger for the cryptocurrency market to regain bullish momentum. He believes that Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant before the inauguration, mirroring market behavior from previous election cycles. His analysis suggests that historical patterns indicate Bitcoin often rises after a new U.S. president takes office. In 2021, Bitcoin rose over 100% shortly after President Biden's inauguration. Similarly, Bitcoin also saw significant breakthroughs around the 2017 inauguration.
Despite these observations, he also acknowledged that if the stock market (especially the S&P 500) continues to rise, his predictions may be overturned. He emphasized that since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, indicating that a sustained stock market rally could bring a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth mentioning that with about two weeks to go before Trump's inauguration, the market shows a rally in Trump-related concept coins.
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months.
On-chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data stating: "In the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530."
Odaily Planet Daily believes that this move may indicate more retail investors exiting the market, further centralizing the BTC chip holding structure.
Trader Eugene: The bull market has entered its latter half; a better strategy is to cash out frequently.
Renowned trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that as we enter the latter half of this cycle, the strategy to adopt should be to sell more frequently rather than holding long-term.
