Today we will conduct a graphic analysis on the BTC market capitalization ratio and ETH market capitalization ratio trends, combined with the candlestick chart, to provide a clearer and more intuitive understanding of the market through the data charts!
① From the cyclical perspective of the bull market, the past bull markets lasted approximately 3-4 years from the bottom of the bear market to the end of the new bull market. The last bear market bottomed out at the end of 2022 and the start of this bull market was at the beginning of 2023. Therefore, it can be inferred that this year is essentially the last year of this bull market. ② Historical trend analysis: In previous bull markets, there were differences, but the overall trend was that Bitcoin (BTC) would first break through its historical high, followed by Ethereum (ETH) leading the altcoins to begin their main upward wave. Due to the involvement of the U.S. government and institutions in this bull market, large funds are more inclined towards Bitcoin, leading to market contraction, making altcoins harder to trade than in previous bull markets. However, the market will still see the expected trends, as capital speculation also focuses on risk-reward ratios. In the last bull market, if we consider BTC rising from around 3500 to a peak of 69000, it was nearly a 20-fold increase. In fact, BTC peaked when it first rose to 60000 and then pulled back to 30000, beginning a prolonged distribution period of over six months. During this time, various altcoins performed final upward movements to cover Bitcoin's distribution.
As the price of BTC continues to rise, its market capitalization is also increasing, with each round of increase actually shrinking. It can be inferred that this round, if we calculate from the bottom of around 15000, could rise to around 150000, as the current peak price is already close to 110000. The risk-reward ratio above is no longer that high. Furthermore, this round of ETH is different from the last one; in previous cycles, it would indirectly follow Bitcoin. This time, however, it has significantly lagged, as it has yet to break the previous high. This is like a very favorable risk-reward ratio with great potential, which explains why many institutions have been accumulating ETH recently. Furthermore, many institutions are likely to exchange Bitcoin for Ethereum. ③ From the trend charts and market share charts.
Looking at Chart ③, after Bitcoin broke its historical high, it surged upwards from 65000 to 110000, marking a breakthrough. By comparing it with Ethereum's trend chart, it can be observed that ETH is currently moving in a similar oscillating trend around 65000, where it is consolidating and accumulating, forming a large triangular convergence pattern over time. After such a long period of consolidation and accumulation, the indicators show that it is in the right-side phase of a completed adjustment. Currently, many altcoins are still at the bear market bottom prices and accumulation zones. The reason for not pushing the price up is that they are waiting for Ethereum to break through and gain strength so that the altcoin traders can start taking action. Overall, it can be inferred that the market trends for the remainder of this year will certainly center around Ethereum, and it is highly likely to be the year we are anticipating for an explosive bull market. As Ethereum's exchange rate rebounds from the bottom, and Bitcoin's market share decreases, Ethereum's growth will surpass Bitcoin, and it will lead altcoins to perform as expected, completing the late-stage surge of the bull market while covering Bitcoin's distribution at the end! Cherish the current positions, be patient, and wait for the wind to come!
