According to BlockBeats, on January 7, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in a recent long article, by analyzing the dollar liquidity environment in the first quarter of 2025 and its impact on the cryptocurrency market, why he believes the cryptocurrency market will peak in mid-March and then experience a severe correction. With the decline in the balance of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tools and the release of funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA), approximately $612 billion in liquidity is expected to be injected in the first quarter, supporting Bitcoin and other assets.
However, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion, and the debt ceiling issue may trigger a liquidity shift in the second quarter. The Treasury may pay government expenses through the TGA until May to June, after which the debt ceiling will need to be raised, which will have a negative impact on liquidity. In addition, the peak tax season (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity. Despite many macroeconomic variables, the flow of funds from RRP and TGA has a relatively clear impact on the market. In summary, the market is expected to experience a short-term peak at the end of the first quarter, after which it may enter an adjustment period.