This week's US economic reports, particularly employment data, will be a determining factor on gold prices.

This week’s US economic reports, especially employment data, could have a decisive impact on gold prices. In addition, these data will play a major role in shaping expectations for a Fed rate cut. Goldman Sachs has postponed its $3,000 gold forecast to 2026. The bank cited fewer Fed rate cuts and weaker demand for ETFs as reasons for this. On the other hand, while Trump’s tariff plans have eased inflation fears, rising bond yields continue to put upward pressure on gold prices.

Economic Data and Evaluations on the Fed's Interest Rate Policy
Markets are watching rising US Treasury yields amid a weaker dollar. Against this backdrop, gold reversed losses from earlier Monday and held firm. The focus in the market is now on US economic data that could influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates. Gold’s movement will be closely tied to economic data due this week. Investors are looking ahead to the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ADP employment data on Wednesday and the Fed’s minutes. The nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will provide important information about the labor market and is expected to have an impact on the Fed’s policy stance.

Goldman Sachs Postpones $3,000 Gold Forecast
Rising Treasury yields and the 10-year Treasury yield remaining at 4.634% are easing market expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025. Goldman Sachs analysts revised their gold price forecasts to reflect the possibility that the expected rate cuts will taper off, and pushed back their $3,000 target to the second quarter of 2026. President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to limit tariffs to specific sectors and ease fears of major trade restrictions weakened the dollar by 1% and lowered inflation expectations. Market analyst James Hyerczyk commented on the developments:

"Tariffs remain a potential inflation driver, which could indirectly support gold as a hedge. High inflation and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to provide key support for gold. However, easing tensions in the Middle East could limit safe-haven buying in the near term."

Gold Price Forecast: Cautious Optimism and Key Resistance Levels
Market analyst James Hyerczyk discusses the gold market outlook and technical analysis. Gold is currently testing important technical levels. It is trading around the 50-day moving average level of $2,656.16, which capped last week's rally. If the bullish momentum continues, gold could head towards the $2,663.51-$2,693.40 pullback zone if broken. Beyond this level, $2,726.30 stands out as the next important resistance. On the downside, initial support is between $2,629.13 and $2,607.35, which stopped the selling pressure earlier in the session. However, if it breaks below this zone, the probability of a retest towards $2,600 will increase.

Gold is expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with $2,656.16 emerging as a critical pivot point. A sustained break above this level could see gold head toward $2,700. However, failure to hold support at $2,607.35 could lead to near-term weakness. Investors will be closely monitoring economic data for signals about the Fed’s next move, positioning gold as a barometer of inflation and monetary policy expectations.