Trump will officially take office as the President of the United States on January 20, 2025, and will call himself the "Crypto President". Some of the cabinet members he nominated are crypto-friendly. The SEC Chairman Gray Gensler (Powell), who has always been criticized, will also leave on the day Trump takes office (this also fulfilled Trump's election promise: he will fire the current SEC Chairman Gray Gensler on the first day of his election as president), which makes the market generally optimistic about the future of the crypto market.
Thanks to the Trump administration's crypto-friendly attitude and the U.S. interest rate cuts, the crypto industry has officially ushered in a bull market. Since the successful presidential election in early November, the market has ushered in a continuous rise for one and a half months. On December 17, BTC rose to a high of $108,366, which lasted until December 18. However, the Federal Reserve made hawkish remarks, suggesting that monetary policy may change. The market expects the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 to be significantly reduced from 4 to 2. Since then, both U.S. stocks and BTC have started to significantly reduce. The Fed's policy shift has caused traders' emotions to cool down, and the emotional cooling has made BTC "cold at high places" and forced to start moving downward. Now it is still in the interest rate cut cycle. The current cooling is only a temporary setback. With the gradual recovery of liquidity, BTC will hit $10 or a new high again after adjusting at a high level.
Yesterday afternoon, Mike Johnson, a Republican Congressman supported by Trump, secured enough votes to successfully be re-elected as Speaker of the House. Johnson is considered crypto-friendly; he previously voted in favor of the (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) (commonly known as FIT21) and against the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) bill. Johnson's re-election and Emmer's continued role as the Majority Whip suggests that pro-crypto members in Congress are likely to push for crypto legislation in 2025.
Latest data shows that the number of representatives in the two upcoming parties supporting cryptocurrency is significantly higher than those opposing it. (House: 268 to 122, Senate: 19 to 12)
According to Morningstar, investors seeking to extend the cryptocurrency bull market will closely monitor any regulatory changes in 2025, as well as whether Trump's commitments to the crypto industry will materialize. Trump has repeatedly vowed to support the crypto industry during his campaign and has received backing from several key figures in the industry.
Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, explained: 'The first 100 days of Trump's term will be very, very important, as analysts often use the 'first 100 days' as a standard to measure the efficiency and influence of a new U.S. president.' Although the incoming president has not detailed any specific plans, investors will be watching whether Trump will fulfill his commitment to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S., primarily including:
Clear guidelines on which cryptocurrencies should be classified as securities;
Will Trump fulfill his commitment to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S.;
Any changes to the SAB121 bill, which establishes accounting standards for companies holding cryptocurrencies, requiring listed companies, including banks, to recognize their held cryptocurrencies as liabilities on their balance sheets;
Will the Federal Reserve significantly lower its key policy rate in 2025?
As Trump's inauguration approaches, the market's attention is focused on his family's closely related crypto project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI). The WLFI asset package purchased those tokens through COW:
16,512 ETH, valued at $59.33 million;
103,149 WBTC, valued at $10.45 million;
6,137 AAVE, valued at $2.1 million;
78,387 LINK, valued at $1.81 million;
741,687 ENA, valued at $890,000;
134,216 ONDO, valued at $210,000.
USDT + USDC holdings approximately $5.42 million.
Currently, the total assets are valued at approximately $79.95 million.
Token RSR:
The new SEC Chairman, Paul Atkins, is an advisor for RSR.
Token ZRX:
The new White House AI and crypto chief, Sachs, is an advisor for ZRX.
The market is closely watching Trump's future moves regarding the crypto market. If he can fulfill his campaign promises, the crypto market may usher in its own golden era.
MicroStrategy announced plans to raise up to $2 billion through the issuance of preferred stock, which is part of its '21/21 plan,' aimed at raising $42 billion over three years (with $21 billion in equity and fixed income each). The purpose of this issuance is to allow MicroStrategy to continue strengthening its balance sheet and acquire more Bitcoin, and this issuance is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025.
The announcement indicates that the decision to continue and complete the issuance is at MicroStrategy's discretion and is subject to market and other conditions; MicroStrategy may choose not to continue or complete the issuance.
It is expected that in the first quarter, purchases equivalent to $2 billion in Bitcoin will be made, adding more bullish expectations to the market.
The focus will finally be on the Japanese interest rate decision on January 24:
The Bank of Japan has an unexpected tendency, although Governor Kazuo Ueda has tried to downplay this tendency, regardless, its interest rate decision will not be announced until the 24th. We can reasonably expect that news will leak a week in advance (as this would help prevent turmoil after an unexpected rate hike on July 31, 2024), so everyone should pay close attention to information from the Bank of Japan in the week prior. The main focus now is to observe the exchange rate of the dollar against the yen before and after Trump's inauguration. If the dollar to yen exchange rate rises above 160, and there are signs that the dollar may continue to rise, concerns about rising import prices will increase, which will push the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. (Given concerns about renewed inflationary pressures due to a weak yen, the probability of a 50 basis point rate increase is still quite high.) Friends in the crypto space know how significant Japan's interest rate hikes can be for the crypto market, so it is essential to manage risk carefully.
According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January is 88.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of maintaining the current rate until March is 46.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 48.4%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 5.4%.
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